Paging Dr. Gemini, Paging Dr. Gemini

I recently sustained a knee injury doing something I stupidly should not have been attempting. But I was introduced to Dr. Gemini who took excellent care of me. She was able to see me immediately without a wait. She spent as long as I wanted with her, answering any questions I had and even suggested some questions I should ask. She answered all the questions as if she had the knowledge of every textbook and article ever written on the subject. She was compassionate and understanding and I was able to contact her any day and at any hour with immediate responses. I was able to follow up with her on a daily basis, updating my symptoms and discussing my response to her suggested treatment. Best of all, she is free. No need for insurance, copays or referrals. 

My experience using AI to help me with my injury was shockingly revealing. I am not sure that being a doctor myself was specifically helpful to me in using AI but it is clear to me that it will play a major role in the future of health care delivery. It made me think of all the patients I had seen during my career that could have been diagnosed or at least screened by AI. The advantage of AI is its vast knowledge, superior to what any human can store. The disadvantage is the lack of the physical examination which although a dying art is still critically important for diagnostic purposes. Yet in fairness, telemedicine also lacks the advantage of a physical diagnosis.

As an ENT specialist, I was pondering the percentage of patients that could have been effectively screened and potentially treated by AI and which chief complaints could be adequately addressed by AI and potentially replace an office visit. Certainly, someone with ear pain likely needs to be seen as there is no substitute for looking at the ear with an otoscope. Although, at least half of patients who presented with a chief complaint of ear pain had nothing wrong with their ear as it was referred pain from another sourced usually the teeth or jaw. AI may be able to screen this patient so he/she goes to the correct provider.

Take for example the chief complaints of tinnitus, dizziness/vertigo, hearing loss, postnasal drip, nasal congestion/allergies, and globus sensation (look it up, you would be surprised the number of patients presenting with this chief complaint) to name a few. All these chief complaints necessitate a complete history and review of symptoms and the diagnosis and treatment can often be dictated by AI. At least, the patients symptoms can be screened by AI to narrow the possibilities with suggested initial interventions. In any case, I believe, a conservative estimate is that 25% of the patients could be initially treated by AI and not require a doctors visit. Of course, persistent symptoms despite AI need a Dr's visit.

I am having a great experience with Gemini as my "doctor" and I am getting better. It could be that my injury is just taking time to heal and she is just reassuring me which alleviates any anxiety leading to the need to see a health care provider. But even that is valuable as the reassurance to patients allow them to wait for the body to recover, which it often will. AI will get better with time and AI specifically designed for narrower fields such as an ENT specific AI will, no doubt, be developed. 

As in many other fields, the combination of a human with AI will dramatically improve productivity and is here to stay. The quality of the product whether in medicine or in any other field is the question that will be answered over the next several years. But, there is no doubt in my mind that the use of AI in medicine will greatly improve the delivery and financing of healthcare. Most importantly, medical outcomes will benefit as well. 

United States Military Base in Southern Lebanon, a Win Win Situation

The demographic and political makeup of Europe and Asia has changed dramatically in the past decade and the US needs to restructure its commitments based on these changes.  NATO was created in order to defend the West against Russia but it seems that the West's primary threat is from political Islamism. The United States needs to change course with regards to who and where it defends in light of these changes. 

Radical Islamism has also seen a geographic transformation as it is now primarily centralized in Western Europe and not the Middle East. While many Middle Eastern countries have gradually moderated such as Saudi Arabia and the UAE, Iran and Turkey pose major threats as they are both led by radical Islamists with imperialistic motivations yearning to recreate the days of the Persian and Ottoman empires.

In light of these shifts the United States needs to reconsider its commitment to NATO. Western Europe has decisively shown itself to be unwilling to address the threat of radical Islamism either from abroad or from within its own borders. The immigration of Muslims into Western Europe and their resulting political influence has pushed Western European countries beyond the tipping point and the US needs to distance itself from them based on this new reality. The US needs to also prevent the same political shift to occur in its own country. 

The US and Europe have drifted far apart demographically, politically and ideologically and Europe has shown itself many times over to not be willing to engage militarily. The defensive pact is completely lopsided as the US is committed to be the  enforcers while the Europeans sit back and judge. Time to ditch Western Europe.

Similarly, Turkey is part of NATO and it is inconceivable that the US and Turkey belong to the same defensive organization. The two countries are incompatibly connected and either Turkey should be kicked out of NATO or the the US should leave. Turkey is an autocratic regime which is not compatible with NATO. It is a major supporter of the Muslim Brotherhood which is a radical Islamist organization. It has imperialistic desires and it has major ties with Russia, the actual reason NATO was created in the first place. 

The United States needs to restructure its post WWII defensive strategy. It needs to radically change its NATO commitments or just leave the NATO alliance. US bases in Western Europe need to be vacated and and relocated. There is a perfect opportunity now for the US to establish a base in Southern Lebanon. Lebanon is infiltrated with Iranian backed anti-zionists that cannot be allowed to share a border with Israel and a buffer zone is required. Similar to Iran, the majority populations do not want the Islamists to control their lives but they have no way of changing their situations. A US base will help the Lebanese take back control of their country. The presence of a US base, separating Israel from Lebanon helps Israel, Lebanon and keeps the pressure on Iran.

Israel has been shown to be the ally with which the United States should try to strengthen its ties, much to the unhappiness of the antisemites throughout the world. A US base in Southern Lebanon would allow for this deeper alliance and is much more relevant than a base in Germany. Israel is currently depopulating Southern Lebanon setting the stage for a buffer zone between Israel and Hezbollah. The useless and ineffective UNIFIL forces are to be removed to be replaced by a Unites Staes military base. Lebanon should be happy with this arrangement as it can result in the gradual elimination of Hezbollah backed forces, returning Lebanon to its citizens. A US base in Southern Lebanon is also situated to place a major counterweight to Turkey's ambitions. 

The times have changed and the US needs to change its defensive and offensive commitments. Archaic treaties and coalitions need to be modernized and re-established based on the new realities on the ground.  Relocating the US military base from Germany to Southern Lebanon is one such idea which has the potential to expand the Abraham Accords and counter radical Islamism.

The Iranians' Hearts Continue to be Hardened

It is very difficult not to see the parallels between the actions of Pharaoh in the times of the ten plagues during the prelude to the Exodus with the actions of the leaders of Iran in their negotiations with the US. Why did it take ten plagues for Pharaoh to be convinced that he is totally overmatched in his fight against the Children of Israel. The scripture states that God hardened Pharaoh's heart and therefore lacked the free will to surrender. The reason this was done is arguable, but many suggest that it was done to stress God's providence, that it was all being performed under His control and not by his emissaries. 

Similarly, Iran has been completely overmatched yet they negotiate as if they are the ones in a position of strength. One could suggest that they actually see themselves as the victors and their control over the Strait of Hormuz puts them in a strong negotiating position. Alternatively, their hearts are being hardened as was Pharaoh's.

The Iranians believe that with this geographic choke point they can hold the world hostage. Pharoah probably felt that Egypt's geographic position next to an uninhabitable desert and bordered by an impassable body of water put him in a powerful negotiating position to keep the children of Israel as slaves. Both tyrants thinking their geographic position puts them in a strong bargaining position. 

Moses and Aaron tried to negotiate with Pharaoh to allow for better conditions for their people but Pharoah just made the conditions worse. Similarly, the US has tried to negotiate with Iran at each step yet they refuse to be flexible. Perhaps, their hearts are being hardened.

Ultimately, in a miraculous fashion, the Exodus culminated with the parting of the Red Sea allowing the children of Israel to escape the Egyptians. What miraculous events are occurring as we speak? Will the hearts of the Iranians be continued to be hardened in order to demonstrate God's control over current events? Is there a culminating miracle to be performed at the Strait of Hormuz? Will there be overt miracles in our story? We are living in historic times and perhaps we have the playbook that we can refer to. The only thing we can conclude is that this ceasefire is not the end of the war by any means. Stay tuned.

Four Questions About the Iran War

Ok, so how absolutely stupid do you have to be to protest against the war in Iran? You left wing liberal morons who preach rights for every minority and cause, march to oppose the bringing down a regime that discriminates against anybody who is not Shia Muslim. Let alone, if you are female or worse if LGBT. This regime does not believe in free choice at all, yet you useful idiots with your self hatred of the West join forces with the most oppressive government that allows zero free choice.

How mentally incapacitated do you have to be with TDS that you would prefer America lose the war and prefer the survival of the apocalyptic authoritarian government in Iran just to damage Trump. Your hatred of the orange man has clouded your judgement to such a degree that you cannot clearly see a government that within the past few months has killed tens of thousands of its own citizens. And, would have no issue with murdering as many Americans as they could. By opposing 100 percent of Trump's actions you are just as dependent on him as someone who is 100% behind him. You have a mental disorder if you hope for an American loss just to be able to tarnish Trump. Get help!

How moronic and uninformed do you have to be to suggest that the threat was not imminent when they preach death to America and boast the ability to create 11 nuclear bombs?. We have been at war with Iran for the past 47 whether you like it or not and they have American blood on their hands. They have already declared war on us and are clearly attempting to obtain weapons to accomplish their goals. Believing that another round of diplomacy is the answer is suicidal either to our generation or our children's generation.

How simple minded and unsophisticated do you have to be to suggest that the war against Islamism is not America's war. You isolationist right wing simpletons want to bury your heads in the sand between two large oceans forgetting the American lives that were taken by the Iranian regime. With your vile antisemitism, you blame the Jews while Israel leads the fight in a global war that is attacking the entire West. You think you can hide 6000 miles away, but they are coming for your way of life.

Islamism is a political ideology which yearns for a global caliphate with global aspirations hiding behind the veneer of a religion. It's their way or death, period.  No different than communism or Naziism and must be dealt with similarly. The Western world is losing this war because too many are too stupid, ignorant, mentally incapacitated, oblivious, naive or self absorbed to realize they are at war for their survival and for their children's survival. Do you really want to kick the can down the road for the next generation to face a worse situation or should we do this now? Time is running out and I fear we are not up to the challenge.  WAKE UP!!!!!

Solution to the Strait of Hormuz Chokepoint

The Strait of Hormuz is a strategic choke point which Iran is manipulating in order to effect shipping and as a result increase the price of oil effecting worldwide supply and economies throughout the world. This leverage allows this apocalyptic Islamist regime to economically threaten the US and the world.  It is not a situation that can be tolerated and a definitive, lasting solution is required.

Ideally, a more favorable government will assume leadership in Iran that is non-theocratic and will cease with the anti-West ideology. Perhaps, the people will rise up and take over the government although this appears unlikely. Alternatively, a government closer to those currently in its neighboring states which has a strong leader to take control on an interim basis but with less fervent religious beliefs. 

The problem though is the degree to which the armed police state is embedded into Iranian society and whether there is the ability by either the Iranian people or the US/Israel offensive to effect their stranglehold over the country. If it does not appear that regime change is taking place and the religious police state is reversing, an alternative option is necessary.

Not necessarily a desirable outcome, but the option is to implement the Cuban model. Invasion of Iran and the take over of a portion of the country with a military base that controls the Strait of Hormuz. This will ensure the free flow of oil through the Strait to the West and to China and allow the overseeing of a gradual transition of Iran from a theocratic autocracy to a nonthreatening actor on the global stage. This facilitates the West's ability to slowly eliminate the police state in Iran, allowing for transition. Warships in the Persian gulf further protect navigational freedom.

Israel seems to be implementing this strategy by establishing a zone in Gaza that is militarily controlled and also in Lebanon by pushing the border North to the Litani River. The religious extremism has taken a long time to be established, to be indoctrinated into the populations and to be used to oppress the people. It likely wont be reversed quickly and the World does not have patience as oil prices soar and economies deteriorate. If there is no imminent regime change in Iran, its time to bite the bullet and pursue the Cuban option.

President Trump, Why Your Approval Numbers are Underwater and Getting Worse

It is difficult to deny that the first year of Trump's current administration has been extremely successful. Especially, if compared with the previous 4 years of the Biden administration. We now have a president that is trying to solve problems and to make the lives of the average American better. If that is the case, then why are Trump's approval numbers at such low levels. His disapproval is running at 55% and trending worse even as all measures seem to be improving.

Some opine that it is related to affordability, but in fact, elevated prices caused by reckless spending by the Biden administration are easing. Specifically, oil and gas prices have declined which immediately impacts the average American and then gradually lowers prices by reducing input costs in all industries that use energy. Alternatively, one could suggest expensive housing as a reason for the low numbers but many markets are seeing a decrease in housing costs due to overbuilding. Additionally, the decreasing interest rates and lower trending mortgage rates only make housing more affordable.

The singular issue that intimately affects every American that is currently off the table and not being addressed is healthcare. The system is broken and getting worse. Access to healthcare is getting more elusive and insurance costs are soaring. This creates healthcare insecurity and dissatisfaction amongst Americans who then correctly blame the administration in power and specifically the president.

The republicans have not offered a credible solution to this issue and the country is angry and disapproves. Trump proceeds to spends billions of dollars on foreign wars, whether right or wrong, and the average American cannot get basic healthcare or affordable medication. It is an argument that is difficult to refute and leads to a resentful electorate and more disapproval. 

The republicans must address this issue and not with a gimmicky solution like giving heath care dollars directly to patients. The system needs a total overhaul and it must include some elements of guaranteed heath care benefits for every citizen to relieve the insecurity. There are models that combine market solutions with government provided heath care that seem to work very well. 

Mr President, if you want your approval numbers to improve, you have to tackle the one issue that keeps getting kicked down the road. The issue that is critical to every American. The healthcare debacle is an enormous challenge and requires a major overhaul. You are up to the challenge and relish in the prospect to be known as the guy that fixed this problem when no one else could. Recreating the health care system in the United States could be your greatest accomplishment, your most impactful legacy and would certainly improve all Americans' lives and as a result your approval numbers.

Dont Miss This Next Call

Ok, so if you look at my last post, dated 2/16/26, you could have quadrupled your money had you headed my recommendation on polymarket. The United States and Israel attacked Iran on February 28 well within the deadline of March 15 for that wager. I wish I had bet more on that one as well. 

Not to gloat too much but if you look at my post from 3/13/25 titled Buy, Buy, Buy I recommended  to buy stocks. At that time the S&P was at 5520. Now, one year later the S&P sits at almost 7000, a gain of nearly 27%. Two predictions that paid off had you acted. But, don't fret I have another one.

It seems that bitcoin is putting in a strong base at around $65000. It has come down from a high of around $125000, representing an almost 50% drawdown, not atypical for bitcoin. The larger the drawdown and the longer the period of base establishment, the higher the eventual rebound in price.

This is not to say that bitcoin cannot break down and establish a lower base but I think its a good time to start establishing a position in bitcoin. If it does break down then buying more at a lower level decreases your average entry price. Buy periodically and patiently.

I am hearing people say that bitcoin is over and its going to zero. This is exactly the time to buy when everyone dismisses cryptocurrency as a hoax. This pattern has happened over and over again in cryptocurrency.  Whenever bitcoin gets ignored its the time to buy. When everyone is talking about it, it's reaching a temporary high. 

Personally, I believe in the validity and value of bitcoin and that it will likely continue to be accepted as a store of value with more use cases in the future. It is secure, scarce and easily transferrable. It has had rough year but I think this has resulted in a buying opportunity. Reaching $200000 within the next two years is certainly within reach.

Quadruple Your Money

Today, February 16, you can place a bet on polymarket whether the US will launch a strike on Iran by March 15. If correct, your winnings quadruple your initial wager, pretty good odds . This attack is inevitable for the primary reason that both sides know that any deal agreed to isn't worth the paper it is signed upon. The "negotiations" are essentially an act which Iran uses as a delay tactic and the US employs to demonstrate an attempt at diplomacy. The only question regarding the attack is the timing and whether it will be Israel alone or Israel with the US. 

It is said that Iran has never won a war but has never lost a negotiation. Google attributes this statement to Donald Trump but I suspect it was coined by someone else. Nevertheless, it is the ultimate challenge for DJT as he defines himself by his negotiating ability and nothing would sooth his ego more than to outnegotiate the best. An epic matchup of the New York Art of the Deal expert vs the negotiating expertise of the Middle Eastern shuk shopkeeper. What a battle!

But everyone knows that in any deal Iran is not an honest broker and any settlement is merely meant as a  delay to wait out Trump until he is out of office. The last thing Trump wants is to negotiate a deal that will absolutely fail and be listed as just another president on a long list who was outsmarted by the Iranians. The Trump administration doesn't want a negotiated deal because they know it will fail, ala Obama. OTOH, Trump doesn't want to be blamed for starting a middle east war, ala Bush. 

Trump basks in the self proclamation that as president he can achieve outcomes that no one else has been able to do. His ego is forever starving and always demanding to be fed. and he drools over the idea that he will be the one to fix the Iranian dilemma. Yet, he knows this cannot be done diplomatically.

The question is how Trump can achieve and be credited with regime change in Iran but not risk being labeled as the instigator of another middle east war. The option is similar to what occurred in the 12 day Iranian war. Israel will start the kinetic action under the true pretense that ballistic missiles are an existential threat. Then the US will join in, depending on how successful the Israelis are, with the plausible deniability that he didn't start the war.

So on one side you have Iran, a known liar, who does not negotiate in fairness and honesty but couches diplomatic deception as acceptable in the name of religious fanaticism.  And on the other side, DJT, who sees diplomacy as a path to failure and a negative for his legacy. To both sides, talk is meaningless.

Israel and the US see this time as ideal to achieve regime change as Iran is at a weak point economically and militarily, the Iranian people are revolting and the Netanyahu/Trump are perfect partners to act kinetically. Both leaders want this achievement on their records and neither want to be labeled as the guy that let this opportunity pass. It is going to happen and when successful will be a game changer for the world. Not terrible to quadruple your money at the same time. 

Microplastics and Blood Letting

Once in a while I am going to throw in a post on a medical topic that seems to come from left field. I am a retired medical doctor but in no way are these tested or proven hypotheses.  They are merely observational and speculative without any proof to back them up. Whatever.

The Human body has an enormous ability to eliminate natural waste and potentially harmful chemicals. Whether produced naturally by the body or absorbed from the environment we have evolved complex systems to deal with these toxins. However, with the rapid introduction of a multitude of chemicals into our environment by industry, the body has been overwhelmed and cannot quickly adapt to eliminate all these toxins.  

There is a redundancy of methods the body employs to excrete toxins. Elimination is performed by filtration in the kidneys, detoxification in the liver,  exhalation in the lungs, as well as sweat and bile production by the skin and GI system. 

One of the primary tools the body uses is kidney function, essentially biologically filtering the blood to eliminate impurities. But as with any filtration system there are imperfections causing certain chemicals to escape the filter and build up in the body. The recent discovery of microplastics accumulating in the body and specifically the brain is demonstrative of this phenomenon. More than likely there are other chemicals, yet to be identified, which are accumulating and causing disease.

Perhaps, since the body cannot eliminate all toxins, the only way to remove certain buildups is by periodic removal of blood. Blood letting was popular for many centuries until it fell out of favor in the 19th century. But as with everything else, what is old is new again. Periodic blood withdrawal is a currently approved treatment for certain diseases such as polycythemia vera, but perhaps wider use is to be considered. But in the meantime, blood donation accomplishes the same result.

A typical blood donation removes about 10% of your blood volume and by donating every 3 months a person can refresh their blood and eliminate 10% of potential toxins that are lurking in their blood at each donation. There is likely a balanced concentration of toxins that occur between the intravascular space and extravascular space. By lowering the concentration in the intravascular space with blood donations, built up toxins in our cells and tissues will migrate into the intravascular space over time and be available for removal at the next donation. Gradually ridding the body of its toxic buildup.

It is well known that menstruating women are afforded heath benefits over their male counterparts that seem to dissipate at menopause. Their monthly period accomplishes the same result as periodic donations, gradually eliminating circulating toxins. Perhaps the monthly bleeding contributes to this advantage. Additionally, women statistically outlive men and perhaps this is due to the decades of menstruation resulting in reduced total body toxin levels. 

Donating blood is easy and free with limited downside. It provides life saving treatment for others who are in desperate need or undergoing certain surgical procedures. But, it may also provide the donor with significant health benefits. As with microplastic buildups in the body, more chemicals will be discovered to be evading our excretory systems, building up in our bodies and brains, causing disease. Until an extracorporeal method is available that supercedes the bodies ability to excrete toxins, periodic blood withdrawal/donation is the way to go. Worst case, it doesn't help the donor but you will have helped others.

Why American Democracy Will Eventually Fail

There is an intrinsic fatal flaw of Democracy that will inevitably lead to its decline and this is being played out currently, although gradually. The wealth tax in California and the election of Madani in New York City are exemplary of this eventual collapse.

Simplistically, the electorate is divided into two groups. The makers, those that produce, grow the economy and pay taxes, and the takers, those that rely on government and receive more than they contribute. As the nanny government has grown, handouts have flourished and redistribution is the goal. The takers are growing as a constituency and as they electorally outnumber the makers, they will vote to enable the government to take evermore from the makers to give it to themselves. Essentially voting themselves a raise. The makers will gradually have to give up progressively more of what they earn, eventually squashing their motivation.

The ideal of one man one vote sounds equitable but in certain ways is a wholly unfair system to assign one vote to someone who works and contributes to society, and an equal vote to someone who lives off government redistributive handouts. 

The founding fathers anticipated this eventuality which is the reason that land ownership was required in order to vote. Subsequent US governments objected to this prerequisite and expanded the right to vote to non land owners. This one move, however well intentioned, planted the seeds of the eventual destruction of the American experiment.

The raison d'etre of the progressive governments being elected is not so much the socialist ideal of government control of the means of production, but rather extreme redistribution.  In the case of NYC, Mamdani was elected on the platform of affordability, a code word for raising taxes on the makers to give it to the takers. In the other case, California's wealth tax is not as subtle, as it is clearly designed to take/steal property from the makers to support the state government in its unlimited and unaccountable spending and redistribution schemes. These elections/propositions are demonstrations of takers voting to enable the legal stealing from the makers (in the form of ever increasing taxes) to give handouts to the takers in exchange for their vote. 

The takers can essentially vote themselves a raise as they will never vote for a candidate that wants to cut the handouts they are receiving. Of course, the system will eventually implode as the maker class will wane as they have little incentive to produce and thus fail to provide the wealth to support the takers.

Furthermore, instead of investigating their systems for widespread fraud and abuse, it is much easier for the government to keep taking from the makers as they are an insignificant part of their constituency anyway. 

From a demographic viewpoint the situation is both inevitable and quite depressing. There does not seem to be a solution to this eventual descent into socialism and extreme redistribution. People will try to escape by continuing to move to states where the process hasn't progressed to the extent as in California and New York. But it's only a matter of time until the federal government is affected by the same trends when socialism and extreme redistribution becomes the law of the land. At that point, the only remaining option is to escape the USA. Get prepared. There is a limited amount of time left. Look to move assets outside the USA!

An American Guest Worker Program

As an American, I cannot go to any other country and stay an unlimited amount of time, get a drivers license, vote in statewide elections, or even get a job. So what is this nonsense put forward by the left that only criminal illegals are to be deported but not the noncriminal illegals. If you're here illegally, you have broken the rules and have accepted the risk that you can be deported at any time, period. 

Surely, noncriminal illegals play an important role in the workings of the American economy. For example, field workers, landscape workers, caretakers for the elderly and handicapped, and construction workers. We need these people who perform jobs that Americans will not (why should Americans work if they can be supported by government handouts), but there needs to be a system of documentation and accountability. The system is completely broken and a free for all with massive abuse of the American taxpayer. 

The US desperately need a guest worker program that is transparent and verifiable. One in which we get the benefit of foreign workers and they get the benefit of a good wage. One that minimizes fraud and abuse.

Some suggestions of how it may look:

All existing illegal immigrants must come forward to be documented or risk deportation with no ability to achieve guest worker status in the future.

US employers to make official requests for guest workers (?application fee, to be paid by employer). Guest worker status granted for an initial trial period, then extended if appropriate. A minimum wage is established for the guest worker.

An initial guest worker visa can only be issued to someone outside the country.

Comprehensive vetting of the guest worker applicant and reliable, unalterable forms of identification.

No birthright citizenship for guest workers. No chain migration. Guest worker's family does not get the right to join the guest worker. (It is the guest worker's decision to separate the family). 

Guest worker does not pay federal taxes or Social Security tax but he/employer does pay State tax if applicable. Guest workers/employer are required to pay into a distinct medicaid fund and for a limited disability benefit which are only in effect if he/she is working and only provides benefits until the expiration of his current guest worker visa. (the guest worker assumes the risk). 

If guest worker is unemployed, he/she can stay in the country while the guest worker visa is valid at their expense and risk, or return to his/her native country. He/she can look for a guest worker job while the visa is valid.

Guest worker must pay for his/her return ticket to their native country prior to arrival in the US as part of the application process.

Possible pathway to citizenship after residing for a minimum of ?12 years and achieving certain definable goals such as language, civics, employment record, employer sponsorship.

The guest worker is not entitled to government benefits such as food stamps and section 8 housing. He/she is not eligible for social security or medicare.

He/she cannot vote in federal elections and is not counted in the census for the benefit of congressional districting or electoral votes. 

Guest worker is prohibited from access to firearms.

Any criminal activity results in revocation of guest worker visa and immediate deportation.

Currently a foreign national can come into the US illegally or overstay their visa, and take advantage of our system.  This is not a system that is safe and beneficial to the US. A sensible guest worker program is needed by the United States as foreign nationals play an integral role in the US economy. A program where both the guest worker and the US benefit from the opportunity yet one that protects the interests of both parties from fraud and abuse.

 

Artificial Intelligence, the Perfect Technology at the Perfect Time

The Minnesota fraud debacle clearly demonstrates a predictable failure of government and certainly is the tip of the iceberg for what is rampant abuse of the good will of the American taxpayer. The intentions of America to have a safety net is noble, but noble intentions with the lack of accountability is legalized theft from the taxpayer. It is auspicious that AI technology has recently been developed as this is the perfect tool to make a significant dent in fraud and abuse of government programs.

It is clear that the Democrats have no desire to be accountable and may even be complicit in the fraud as they see the safety net as a scheme to redistribute, ie.steal, from the taxpayer to the "needy" in exchange for their votes. The Republicans, being the adult in the room and claiming some degree of fiscal responsibility, have a unique opportunity to remedy the problem by instituting AI to provide strict oversight. This needs to be introduced and passed in 2026 through reconciliation, prior to the midterms, when they risk losing the majority in the House. If not by reconciliation, lets see if 7 Democratic senators can be convinced to pass a bill making sure taxpayer money is spent responsibly while they are being shamed by their irresponsible actions in Minnesota.

AI has the ability to crunch a tremendous amount of data and determine if  money that is being doled out is appropriate for the needs of the recipient or is being received fraudulently. Something as simple as checking if someone is receiving benefits from multiple states can easily be determined by AI and reduce waste. AI can accumulate the available data of someones purchasing history, car and rent payments, income, travel, bank accounts and many other factors,  A picture can be drawn of a persons neediness or whether they could be fraudsters. Just the chance of someone getting caught with strict penalties will stop a lot of waste.

One can argue about privacy issues for those who are receiving handouts being monitored by AI. The answer to that is, if you are are relying on the taxpayer for your basic needs, you have forfeited the right to complete privacy. You owe it to the people that are giving you the money to be transparent in how the largess is being used and that it not being abused. If that does not work for you, then get off the public dole.

Certainly, at some point a human has to investigate to determine if fraudulent activity is occurring, but AI can sift through a tremendous amount of data that a human cannot. A partnership where AI filters the information and presents the most likely fraudulent cases to the investigators can go a long way in reducing waste, fraud, and abuse. The time has come to get serious with protecting the taxpayers money and to get aggressive against those who abuse America's generosity.

Freedom, our Quintessential Quality, yet our Greatest Weakness

The recent United States' military interventions in Iran, Syria and Venezuela demonstrate a significant superiority of its military compared with the ability of these countries to fend off such attacks. The US likely has weapons that are unknown to its adversaries which are game changers on the battlefield. The administration speaks with extreme boldness and threatening language as it attempts to affect other governments' policies, both in terms of their internal and external affairs. Not to say that these are not desirable goals, but it should not come as a surprise if one or more of these actors are planning to retaliate, which would necessarily come in the form of an unconventional attack.

The United States is unbeatable when it comes to conventional warfare but it has a major weakness which stems from perhaps our greatest value and that is our freedom. We Americans greatly value our freedom, but this comes at the expense of our domestic security. We frown on any moves by the government to track our activities. The availability of powerful guns is enshrined in our bill of rights. Our freedom of speech allows for radicalization and particularly against the nation itself. These freedoms uniquely define the United States but they also create a weakness that can be taken advantage of by our enemies.

The United States has plenty of soft targets. A bad actor can easily cause a mass casualty event in our country and we are completely unprepared for such a scenario. Who knows how many bad actors are currently in the United Staes and this includes sleeper cells that were allowed into the country under the suicidal Biden administration, but really orchestrated by the democratic machine. They sacrificed our security for their political ends, shameful! 

The United States is also plentiful with enemies that would not think twice of retaliating with unconventional warfare against it. Not only foreign elements but also domestic terrorists that have been radicalized and despise Western civilization and capitalism. The far left/woke have already shown its proclivity to incite violence.

It is too scary to speculate on specific scenarios that could occur but just think of all the places Americans congregate in large numbers with minimal or no protection. Consider the water we drink and the air we breath, and the food we eat. How easily could a biological weapon be smuggled into the country? 

Our enemies cannot fight us in conventional manner and will plan to retaliate by hitting our soft underbelly which is exposed by our defining quality, freedom. We would have to be proactive to eliminate and prevent these threats which would require a major shift in our daily lives. The fear is we are too late. 

Vance or Rubio in 2028?

The perfect primary is lining up for the republican party and it will be the ultimate poll as to where the majority of its constituents are currently positioned on an issue that seems to be fracturing the party. Is the republican party dominated by the isolationist wing, represented by JD Vance? Or alternatively, by what should be seen as the Donald Trump wing which believes in limited and surgical overseas operations which promote America's interest and world peace. This is represented by Marco Rubio as demonstrated by his orchestration of the Venezuela operation.

It seems that many Americans are rightly scarred by endless middle east wars and nation building which has been bad policy for the last few decades and pushed by the so called Neocons., This culminated in Biden's botched Afghanistan pull out which was the last straw highlighting this disastrous foreign policy leading to isolationist leanings. The pendulum has swung to other extreme where some feel any foreign involvement, including foreign aid, is viewed as contrary to the American first dogma and is filled with conspiracy nonsense. The ideal course for America's foreign policy likely lies somewhere between these two extremes. 

Based on his actions over the past year, President Trump seems to be following this middle, more rational and thought out course. Minimal risk with significant upside, surgical pinpoint operations, and carefully picking your moments to intervene. Give financial aid those groups that will promote US interests at the expense of their soldiers and weaponry, not America's. The more successes this Trump foreign policy racks up, the more likely GOP voters will support the Trump/Rubio approach and shake off the urge for isolationism.

It is clear that Marcio Rubio, as Secretary of State, aligns himself with the Trump policies as he is instrumental in their conception and implementation. Conversely, Vance is being somewhat vague about where he positions himself in relation to isolationism, foreign aid, and America's foreign policy. Not unexpected, as he does not want to alienate voters too early, and wants to be the loyal VP,  supporting his boss' policies. But if/when he becomes a presidential candidate he owes it to GOP voters to clearly lay out his positions so a healthy debate can ensue.

Although this debate is splintering the party, it is an important one which is critical to the platform of the GOP so voters clearly understand its positions. Is the isolationist wing just a vocal minority with a small sliver of the party amplified by the Carlsons of the podcast world with pumped up subscriber numbers? Or hopefully, is there a silent majority which want to continue with the more reasoned approach as practiced by the Trump administration and bequeathed to Rubio?  The Republican primary between Vance and Rubio will be the ultimate poll.

Mr. President, Lower Rates are Killing Savers

As a real estate professional, one can clearly understand why President Trump wants to lower interest rates. Every deal he ever looks at, hinges on the underwriting of the property(ies) which is directly related to the prevailing mortgage rates currently being offered by banks.. A lower mortgage rate lowers the overall costs when purchasing and managing a property, elevating profits. Trump craves a lower interest rate at all costs, without assessing its unintended consequences. The mortgage rate fluctuates based on many factors, but primarily the 10 year treasury bond which is set by market forces and NOT by the government. The misconception is that the government sets your mortgage rate or the rate on your car loan, but in fact it is set by market forces.

The government through its mandate of the Federal Reserve sets the federal funds rate which is an overnight rate, a very short term rate. Compare a ten year interest rate to an overnight rate. The risk profile of lending money overnight versus lending money for 10 years is vastly different. Consider inflation risks. When lending money overnight, inflation is a nonfactor since there would not be any erosion of the principle due to overnight inflation. OTOH, over a ten year period, inflation could considerably erode the value of the principle and therefore a ten year yield must incorporate that risk when it is being traded. So if there is a perceived risk of future inflation, the longer term interest rate would have to be higher to incorporate the risk of principle erosion.

The administration desires a lower consumer borrowing rate in the belief that this will spur economic activity and boost the overall economy. Recent actions to lower the short term rate by the Fed and encouraged by the president has not lowered the 10 year rate and thus has had minimal effects on mortgage rates. This is due to the fact that lower rates promote inflationary fears thus negating the effects on the longer term bond. What it has done is to significantly hurt savers. 

Many savers have their money in short term instruments most notably money markets. The interest received in money markets is tightly related to the short term interest rate set by the Fed and every lowering of the rate by the fed decreases interest received to savers. This lowers spendable dollars which is a negative for the economy, the exact opposite of what was supposed to happen.

There is estimated to be 8 trillion dollars in money market funds and somewhere in the area of 7 trillion in short term treasury bills and 11 trillion dollars in savings and checking accounts. The interest received on these short term savings vehicles, totaling more than 26 trillion dollars, are directly tied to the short term rate set by the Fed and every lowering of interest rate by 25 basis points lowers the interest received by tens of billions of dollars. 

So what is occurring is, savers are penalized to the tune of tens of billions of dollars which effectively lowers spending in the economy, while borrowers get no real help with lower borrowing rates. 

If someone is losing, there must be a winner in this so who wins in this situation? As the difference, or the spread between the short term lending rate and the 10 year rate has been widening, (the Fed lowers the short term rates but the market forces do not lower the 10 yr rate, also known as a steepening yield curve), the clear winners are the banks . They are able to borrow money at a low rate and then lend it out long term at higher rates. This difference generated is the profit earned by banks and the greater the spread between short and long term rates, the greater the profits at banks. In a more extreme example, for those who have savings accounts in banks earning 0.4-0.6%, you are lending money to banks essentially for free and they are lending your money out at 6+% for the average mortgage rate. What a business!!

Every action has unintended consequences and the government has to consider the effects of its actions on savers and their contribution to the economy. There must be a balance between what the administration thinks it is doing to help spur the economy by lowering short term rates and its effects on people who rely on their savings, as well as those who are trying to save for a nest egg. By lowering short term rates, inflation perceptions grow, leading to higher long term rates, the exact opposite of the intended action. At this time, lowering the fed funds rate does little to help borrowers, but only pumps up bank's earnings while severely impacting savers.