Quadruple Your Money

Today, February 16, you can place a bet on polymarket whether the US will launch a strike on Iran by March 15. If correct, your winnings quadruple your initial wager, pretty good odds . This attack is inevitable for the primary reason that both sides know that any deal agreed to isn't worth the paper it is signed upon. The "negotiations" are essentially an act which Iran uses as a delay tactic and the US employs to demonstrate an attempt at diplomacy. The only question regarding the attack is the timing and whether it will be Israel alone or Israel with the US. 

It is said that Iran has never won a war but has never lost a negotiation. Google attributes this statement to Donald Trump but I suspect it was coined by someone else. Nevertheless, it is the ultimate challenge for DJT as he defines himself by his negotiating ability and nothing would sooth his ego more than to outnegotiate the best. An epic matchup of the New York Art of the Deal expert vs the negotiating expertise of the Middle Eastern shuk shopkeeper. What a battle!

But everyone knows that in any deal Iran is not an honest broker and any settlement is merely meant as a  delay to wait out Trump until he is out of office. The last thing Trump wants is to negotiate a deal that will absolutely fail and be listed as just another president on a long list who was outsmarted by the Iranians. The Trump administration doesn't want a negotiated deal because they know it will fail, ala Obama. OTOH, Trump doesn't want to be blamed for starting a middle east war, ala Bush. 

Trump basks in the self proclamation that as president he can achieve outcomes that no one else has been able to do. His ego is forever starving and always demanding to be fed. and he drools over the idea that he will be the one to fix the Iranian dilemma. Yet, he knows this cannot be done diplomatically.

The question is how Trump can achieve and be credited with regime change in Iran but not risk being labeled as the instigator of another middle east war. The option is similar to what occurred in the 12 day Iranian war. Israel will start the kinetic action under the true pretense that ballistic missiles are an existential threat. Then the US will join in, depending on how successful the Israelis are, with the plausible deniability that he didn't start the war.

So on one side you have Iran, a known liar, who does not negotiate in fairness and honesty but couches diplomatic deception as acceptable in the name of religious fanaticism.  And on the other side, DJT, who sees diplomacy as a path to failure and a negative for his legacy. To both sides, talk is meaningless.

Israel and the US see this time as ideal to achieve regime change as Iran is at a weak point economically and militarily, the Iranian people are revolting and the Netanyahu/Trump are perfect partners to act kinetically. Both leaders want this achievement on their records and neither want to be labeled as the guy that let this opportunity pass. It is going to happen and when successful will be a game changer for the world. Not terrible to quadruple your money at the same time.