The current deal on the table described as a memorandum of understanding (MOU) between the US and Iran is being intensely scrutinized even prior to the release of the document. It is simultaneously being hailed as well as being characterized as disastrous. But ultimately, it will accomplish only one thing which benefits both sides and turns the clock backwards to the end of February. All the points in the MOU will not be honored or implemented upon except the one which trades Iran opening the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for the US ending its blockade.
These closures by both sides have led to economic consequences that have negatively effected both sides. The US has seen oil prices rise which has raised gas prices and has led to an increase in inflation with resulting lower approval ratings for the war and the Trump administration. Iran has seen its oil revenue go to zero, tanking an already basket case of an economy. Both sides have concluded that enacting their blockades was self destructive with no beneficial results and desiring a reversal.
This leaves a situation where all the other issues remain. Specifically, the nuclear issue, the proxy issue, sanctions, even the ceasefire (ie, Lebanon) will remain unresolved. The war with Iran is not over but is just being paused in order for Trump to get gas prices down in advance of the midterms. The Iranians also want the pause as they benefit from further delays in the attempt to outlast Trump with a favorable congress. The also have a chance to rearm as shipping into Iran returns.
Beyond this pause is the question of what will happen after the midterms when Trump has nothing to lose. Did he have a conversation with Bibi that he will distance himself from the Israelis until the vote in November and afterwards will try to achieve his ultimate goals which are regime change in Iran, broadening the Abraham accords, and ultimately Middle East peace. This win would contribute greatly to satiating Trump's ravenous ego and be the ultimate accomplishment to cement his legacy and to win a Nobel prize.
The US war against Iran is currently on pause. The MOU reverses the war back to the conditions present at the end of February, opening the Persian Gulf. Oil prices have fallen and will likely continue that trend as more supply comes to market. The big unknowns are the results of the midterms and what will happen with Iran after the midterms. Current stock prices have reached record levels but the market punishes unknowns. Perhaps it is time to take a few dollars off the table during the summer. (I am not a financial advisor nor is this financial advise).
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