Dont Miss This Next Call

Ok, so if you look at my last post, dated 2/16/26, you could have quadrupled your money had you headed my recommendation on polymarket. The United States and Israel attacked Iran on February 28 well within the deadline of March 15 for that wager. I wish I had bet more on that one as well. 

Not to gloat too much but if you look at my post from 3/13/25 titled Buy, Buy, Buy I recommended  to buy stocks. At that time the S&P was at 5520. Now, one year later the S&P sits at almost 7000, a gain of nearly 27%. Two predictions that paid off had you acted. But, don't fret I have another one.

It seems that bitcoin is putting in a strong base at around $65000. It has come down from a high of around $125000, representing an almost 50% drawdown, not atypical for bitcoin. The larger the drawdown and the longer the period of base establishment, the higher the eventual rebound in price.

This is not to say that bitcoin cannot break down and establish a lower base but I think its a good time to start establishing a position in bitcoin. If it does break down then buying more at a lower level decreases your average entry price. Buy periodically and patiently.

I am hearing people say that bitcoin is over and its going to zero. This is exactly the time to buy when everyone dismisses cryptocurrency as a hoax. This pattern has happened over and over again in cryptocurrency.  Whenever bitcoin gets ignored its the time to buy. When everyone is talking about it, it's reaching a temporary high. 

Personally, I believe in the validity and value of bitcoin and that it will likely continue to be accepted as a store of value with more use cases in the future. It is secure, scarce and easily transferrable. It has had rough year but I think this has resulted in a buying opportunity. Reaching $200000 within the next two years is certainly within reach.

Quadruple Your Money

Today, February 16, you can place a bet on polymarket whether the US will launch a strike on Iran by March 15. If correct, your winnings quadruple your initial wager, pretty good odds . This attack is inevitable for the primary reason that both sides know that any deal agreed to isn't worth the paper it is signed upon. The "negotiations" are essentially an act which Iran uses as a delay tactic and the US employs to demonstrate an attempt at diplomacy. The only question regarding the attack is the timing and whether it will be Israel alone or Israel with the US. 

It is said that Iran has never won a war but has never lost a negotiation. Google attributes this statement to Donald Trump but I suspect it was coined by someone else. Nevertheless, it is the ultimate challenge for DJT as he defines himself by his negotiating ability and nothing would sooth his ego more than to outnegotiate the best. An epic matchup of the New York Art of the Deal expert vs the negotiating expertise of the Middle Eastern shuk shopkeeper. What a battle!

But everyone knows that in any deal Iran is not an honest broker and any settlement is merely meant as a  delay to wait out Trump until he is out of office. The last thing Trump wants is to negotiate a deal that will absolutely fail and be listed as just another president on a long list who was outsmarted by the Iranians. The Trump administration doesn't want a negotiated deal because they know it will fail, ala Obama. OTOH, Trump doesn't want to be blamed for starting a middle east war, ala Bush. 

Trump basks in the self proclamation that as president he can achieve outcomes that no one else has been able to do. His ego is forever starving and always demanding to be fed. and he drools over the idea that he will be the one to fix the Iranian dilemma. Yet, he knows this cannot be done diplomatically.

The question is how Trump can achieve and be credited with regime change in Iran but not risk being labeled as the instigator of another middle east war. The option is similar to what occurred in the 12 day Iranian war. Israel will start the kinetic action under the true pretense that ballistic missiles are an existential threat. Then the US will join in, depending on how successful the Israelis are, with the plausible deniability that he didn't start the war.

So on one side you have Iran, a known liar, who does not negotiate in fairness and honesty but couches diplomatic deception as acceptable in the name of religious fanaticism.  And on the other side, DJT, who sees diplomacy as a path to failure and a negative for his legacy. To both sides, talk is meaningless.

Israel and the US see this time as ideal to achieve regime change as Iran is at a weak point economically and militarily, the Iranian people are revolting and the Netanyahu/Trump are perfect partners to act kinetically. Both leaders want this achievement on their records and neither want to be labeled as the guy that let this opportunity pass. It is going to happen and when successful will be a game changer for the world. Not terrible to quadruple your money at the same time. 

Microplastics and Blood Letting

Once in a while I am going to throw in a post on a medical topic that seems to come from left field. I am a retired medical doctor but in no way are these tested or proven hypotheses.  They are merely observational and speculative without any proof to back them up. Whatever.

The Human body has an enormous ability to eliminate natural waste and potentially harmful chemicals. Whether produced naturally by the body or absorbed from the environment we have evolved complex systems to deal with these toxins. However, with the rapid introduction of a multitude of chemicals into our environment by industry, the body has been overwhelmed and cannot quickly adapt to eliminate all these toxins.  

There is a redundancy of methods the body employs to excrete toxins. Elimination is performed by filtration in the kidneys, detoxification in the liver,  exhalation in the lungs, as well as sweat and bile production by the skin and GI system. 

One of the primary tools the body uses is kidney function, essentially biologically filtering the blood to eliminate impurities. But as with any filtration system there are imperfections causing certain chemicals to escape the filter and build up in the body. The recent discovery of microplastics accumulating in the body and specifically the brain is demonstrative of this phenomenon. More than likely there are other chemicals, yet to be identified, which are accumulating and causing disease.

Perhaps, since the body cannot eliminate all toxins, the only way to remove certain buildups is by periodic removal of blood. Blood letting was popular for many centuries until it fell out of favor in the 19th century. But as with everything else, what is old is new again. Periodic blood withdrawal is a currently approved treatment for certain diseases such as polycythemia vera, but perhaps wider use is to be considered. But in the meantime, blood donation accomplishes the same result.

A typical blood donation removes about 10% of your blood volume and by donating every 3 months a person can refresh their blood and eliminate 10% of potential toxins that are lurking in their blood at each donation. There is likely a balanced concentration of toxins that occur between the intravascular space and extravascular space. By lowering the concentration in the intravascular space with blood donations, built up toxins in our cells and tissues will migrate into the intravascular space over time and be available for removal at the next donation. Gradually ridding the body of its toxic buildup.

It is well known that menstruating women are afforded heath benefits over their male counterparts that seem to dissipate at menopause. Their monthly period accomplishes the same result as periodic donations, gradually eliminating circulating toxins. Perhaps the monthly bleeding contributes to this advantage. Additionally, women statistically outlive men and perhaps this is due to the decades of menstruation resulting in reduced total body toxin levels. 

Donating blood is easy and free with limited downside. It provides life saving treatment for others who are in desperate need or undergoing certain surgical procedures. But, it may also provide the donor with significant health benefits. As with microplastic buildups in the body, more chemicals will be discovered to be evading our excretory systems, building up in our bodies and brains, causing disease. Until an extracorporeal method is available that supercedes the bodies ability to excrete toxins, periodic blood withdrawal/donation is the way to go. Worst case, it doesn't help the donor but you will have helped others.

Why American Democracy Will Eventually Fail

There is an intrinsic fatal flaw of Democracy that will inevitably lead to its decline and this is being played out currently, although gradually. The wealth tax in California and the election of Madani in New York City are exemplary of this eventual collapse.

Simplistically, the electorate is divided into two groups. The makers, those that produce, grow the economy and pay taxes, and the takers, those that rely on government and receive more than they contribute. As the nanny government has grown, handouts have flourished and redistribution is the goal. The takers are growing as a constituency and as they electorally outnumber the makers, they will vote to enable the government to take evermore from the makers to give it to themselves. Essentially voting themselves a raise. The makers will gradually have to give up progressively more of what they earn, eventually squashing their motivation.

The ideal of one man one vote sounds equitable but in certain ways is a wholly unfair system to assign one vote to someone who works and contributes to society, and an equal vote to someone who lives off government redistributive handouts. 

The founding fathers anticipated this eventuality which is the reason that land ownership was required in order to vote. Subsequent US governments objected to this prerequisite and expanded the right to vote to non land owners. This one move, however well intentioned, planted the seeds of the eventual destruction of the American experiment.

The raison d'etre of the progressive governments being elected is not so much the socialist ideal of government control of the means of production, but rather extreme redistribution.  In the case of NYC, Mamdani was elected on the platform of affordability, a code word for raising taxes on the makers to give it to the takers. In the other case, California's wealth tax is not as subtle, as it is clearly designed to take/steal property from the makers to support the state government in its unlimited and unaccountable spending and redistribution schemes. These elections/propositions are demonstrations of takers voting to enable the legal stealing from the makers (in the form of ever increasing taxes) to give handouts to the takers in exchange for their vote. 

The takers can essentially vote themselves a raise as they will never vote for a candidate that wants to cut the handouts they are receiving. Of course, the system will eventually implode as the maker class will wane as they have little incentive to produce and thus fail to provide the wealth to support the takers.

Furthermore, instead of investigating their systems for widespread fraud and abuse, it is much easier for the government to keep taking from the makers as they are an insignificant part of their constituency anyway. 

From a demographic viewpoint the situation is both inevitable and quite depressing. There does not seem to be a solution to this eventual descent into socialism and extreme redistribution. People will try to escape by continuing to move to states where the process hasn't progressed to the extent as in California and New York. But it's only a matter of time until the federal government is affected by the same trends when socialism and extreme redistribution becomes the law of the land. At that point, the only remaining option is to escape the USA. Get prepared. There is a limited amount of time left. Look to move assets outside the USA!

An American Guest Worker Program

As an American, I cannot go to any other country and stay an unlimited amount of time, get a drivers license, vote in statewide elections, or even get a job. So what is this nonsense put forward by the left that only criminal illegals are to be deported but not the noncriminal illegals. If you're here illegally, you have broken the rules and have accepted the risk that you can be deported at any time, period. 

Surely, noncriminal illegals play an important role in the workings of the American economy. For example, field workers, landscape workers, caretakers for the elderly and handicapped, and construction workers. We need these people who perform jobs that Americans will not (why should Americans work if they can be supported by government handouts), but there needs to be a system of documentation and accountability. The system is completely broken and a free for all with massive abuse of the American taxpayer. 

The US desperately need a guest worker program that is transparent and verifiable. One in which we get the benefit of foreign workers and they get the benefit of a good wage. One that minimizes fraud and abuse.

Some suggestions of how it may look:

All existing illegal immigrants must come forward to be documented or risk deportation with no ability to achieve guest worker status in the future.

US employers to make official requests for guest workers (?application fee, to be paid by employer). Guest worker status granted for an initial trial period, then extended if appropriate. A minimum wage is established for the guest worker.

An initial guest worker visa can only be issued to someone outside the country.

Comprehensive vetting of the guest worker applicant and reliable, unalterable forms of identification.

No birthright citizenship for guest workers. No chain migration. Guest worker's family does not get the right to join the guest worker. (It is the guest worker's decision to separate the family). 

Guest worker does not pay federal taxes or Social Security tax but he/employer does pay State tax if applicable. Guest workers/employer are required to pay into a distinct medicaid fund and for a limited disability benefit which are only in effect if he/she is working and only provides benefits until the expiration of his current guest worker visa. (the guest worker assumes the risk). 

If guest worker is unemployed, he/she can stay in the country while the guest worker visa is valid at their expense and risk, or return to his/her native country. He/she can look for a guest worker job while the visa is valid.

Guest worker must pay for his/her return ticket to their native country prior to arrival in the US as part of the application process.

Possible pathway to citizenship after residing for a minimum of ?12 years and achieving certain definable goals such as language, civics, employment record, employer sponsorship.

The guest worker is not entitled to government benefits such as food stamps and section 8 housing. He/she is not eligible for social security or medicare.

He/she cannot vote in federal elections and is not counted in the census for the benefit of congressional districting or electoral votes. 

Guest worker is prohibited from access to firearms.

Any criminal activity results in revocation of guest worker visa and immediate deportation.

Currently a foreign national can come into the US illegally or overstay their visa, and take advantage of our system.  This is not a system that is safe and beneficial to the US. A sensible guest worker program is needed by the United States as foreign nationals play an integral role in the US economy. A program where both the guest worker and the US benefit from the opportunity yet one that protects the interests of both parties from fraud and abuse.

 

Artificial Intelligence, the Perfect Technology at the Perfect Time

The Minnesota fraud debacle clearly demonstrates a predictable failure of government and certainly is the tip of the iceberg for what is rampant abuse of the good will of the American taxpayer. The intentions of America to have a safety net is noble, but noble intentions with the lack of accountability is legalized theft from the taxpayer. It is auspicious that AI technology has recently been developed as this is the perfect tool to make a significant dent in fraud and abuse of government programs.

It is clear that the Democrats have no desire to be accountable and may even be complicit in the fraud as they see the safety net as a scheme to redistribute, ie.steal, from the taxpayer to the "needy" in exchange for their votes. The Republicans, being the adult in the room and claiming some degree of fiscal responsibility, have a unique opportunity to remedy the problem by instituting AI to provide strict oversight. This needs to be introduced and passed in 2026 through reconciliation, prior to the midterms, when they risk losing the majority in the House. If not by reconciliation, lets see if 7 Democratic senators can be convinced to pass a bill making sure taxpayer money is spent responsibly while they are being shamed by their irresponsible actions in Minnesota.

AI has the ability to crunch a tremendous amount of data and determine if  money that is being doled out is appropriate for the needs of the recipient or is being received fraudulently. Something as simple as checking if someone is receiving benefits from multiple states can easily be determined by AI and reduce waste. AI can accumulate the available data of someones purchasing history, car and rent payments, income, travel, bank accounts and many other factors,  A picture can be drawn of a persons neediness or whether they could be fraudsters. Just the chance of someone getting caught with strict penalties will stop a lot of waste.

One can argue about privacy issues for those who are receiving handouts being monitored by AI. The answer to that is, if you are are relying on the taxpayer for your basic needs, you have forfeited the right to complete privacy. You owe it to the people that are giving you the money to be transparent in how the largess is being used and that it not being abused. If that does not work for you, then get off the public dole.

Certainly, at some point a human has to investigate to determine if fraudulent activity is occurring, but AI can sift through a tremendous amount of data that a human cannot. A partnership where AI filters the information and presents the most likely fraudulent cases to the investigators can go a long way in reducing waste, fraud, and abuse. The time has come to get serious with protecting the taxpayers money and to get aggressive against those who abuse America's generosity.

Freedom, our Quintessential Quality, yet our Greatest Weakness

The recent United States' military interventions in Iran, Syria and Venezuela demonstrate a significant superiority of its military compared with the ability of these countries to fend off such attacks. The US likely has weapons that are unknown to its adversaries which are game changers on the battlefield. The administration speaks with extreme boldness and threatening language as it attempts to affect other governments' policies, both in terms of their internal and external affairs. Not to say that these are not desirable goals, but it should not come as a surprise if one or more of these actors are planning to retaliate, which would necessarily come in the form of an unconventional attack.

The United States is unbeatable when it comes to conventional warfare but it has a major weakness which stems from perhaps our greatest value and that is our freedom. We Americans greatly value our freedom, but this comes at the expense of our domestic security. We frown on any moves by the government to track our activities. The availability of powerful guns is enshrined in our bill of rights. Our freedom of speech allows for radicalization and particularly against the nation itself. These freedoms uniquely define the United States but they also create a weakness that can be taken advantage of by our enemies.

The United States has plenty of soft targets. A bad actor can easily cause a mass casualty event in our country and we are completely unprepared for such a scenario. Who knows how many bad actors are currently in the United Staes and this includes sleeper cells that were allowed into the country under the suicidal Biden administration, but really orchestrated by the democratic machine. They sacrificed our security for their political ends, shameful! 

The United States is also plentiful with enemies that would not think twice of retaliating with unconventional warfare against it. Not only foreign elements but also domestic terrorists that have been radicalized and despise Western civilization and capitalism. The far left/woke have already shown its proclivity to incite violence.

It is too scary to speculate on specific scenarios that could occur but just think of all the places Americans congregate in large numbers with minimal or no protection. Consider the water we drink and the air we breath, and the food we eat. How easily could a biological weapon be smuggled into the country? 

Our enemies cannot fight us in conventional manner and will plan to retaliate by hitting our soft underbelly which is exposed by our defining quality, freedom. We would have to be proactive to eliminate and prevent these threats which would require a major shift in our daily lives. The fear is we are too late.