United States Military Base in Southern Lebanon, a Win Win Situation

The demographic and political makeup of Europe and Asia has changed dramatically in the past decade and the US needs to restructure its commitments based on these changes.  NATO was created in order to defend the West against Russia but it seems that the West's primary threat is from political Islamism. The United States needs to change course with regards to who and where it defends in light of these changes. 

Radical Islamism has also seen a geographic transformation as it is now primarily centralized in Western Europe and not the Middle East. While many Middle Eastern countries have gradually moderated such as Saudi Arabia and the UAE, Iran and Turkey pose major threats as they are both led by radical Islamists with imperialistic motivations yearning to recreate the days of the Persian and Ottoman empires.

In light of these shifts the United States needs to reconsider its commitment to NATO. Western Europe has decisively shown itself to be unwilling to address the threat of radical Islamism either from abroad or from within its own borders. The immigration of Muslims into Western Europe and their resulting political influence has pushed Western European countries beyond the tipping point and the US needs to distance itself from them based on this new reality. The US needs to also prevent the same political shift to occur in its own country. 

The US and Europe have drifted far apart demographically, politically and ideologically and Europe has shown itself many times over to not be willing to engage militarily. The defensive pact is completely lopsided as the US is committed to be the  enforcers while the Europeans sit back and judge. Time to ditch Western Europe.

Similarly, Turkey is part of NATO and it is inconceivable that the US and Turkey belong to the same defensive organization. The two countries are incompatibly connected and either Turkey should be kicked out of NATO or the the US should leave. Turkey is an autocratic regime which is not compatible with NATO. It is a major supporter of the Muslim Brotherhood which is a radical Islamist organization. It has imperialistic desires and it has major ties with Russia, the actual reason NATO was created in the first place. 

The United States needs to restructure its post WWII defensive strategy. It needs to radically change its NATO commitments or just leave the NATO alliance. US bases in Western Europe need to be vacated and and relocated. There is a perfect opportunity now for the US to establish a base in Southern Lebanon. Lebanon is infiltrated with Iranian backed anti-zionists that cannot be allowed to share a border with Israel and a buffer zone is required. Similar to Iran, the majority populations do not want the Islamists to control their lives but they have no way of changing their situations. A US base will help the Lebanese take back control of their country. The presence of a US base, separating Israel from Lebanon helps Israel, Lebanon and keeps the pressure on Iran.

Israel has been shown to be the ally with which the United States should try to strengthen its ties, much to the unhappiness of the antisemites throughout the world. A US base in Southern Lebanon would allow for this deeper alliance and is much more relevant than a base in Germany. Israel is currently depopulating Southern Lebanon setting the stage for a buffer zone between Israel and Hezbollah. The useless and ineffective UNIFIL forces are to be removed to be replaced by a Unites Staes military base. Lebanon should be happy with this arrangement as it can result in the gradual elimination of Hezbollah backed forces, returning Lebanon to its citizens. A US base in Southern Lebanon is also situated to place a major counterweight to Turkey's ambitions. 

The times have changed and the US needs to change its defensive and offensive commitments. Archaic treaties and coalitions need to be modernized and re-established based on the new realities on the ground.  Relocating the US military base from Germany to Southern Lebanon is one such idea which has the potential to expand the Abraham Accords and counter radical Islamism.

The Iranians Hearts Continue to be Hardened

It is very difficult not to see the parallels between the actions of Pharaoh in the times of the ten plagues during the prelude to the Exodus with the actions of the leaders of Iran in their negotiations with the US. Why did it take ten plagues for Pharaoh to be convinced that he is totally overmatched in his fight against the Children of Israel. The scripture states that God hardened Pharaoh's heart and therefore lacked the free will to surrender. The reason this was done is arguable, but many suggest that it was done to stress God's providence, that it was all being performed under His control and not by his emissaries. 

Similarly, Iran has been completely overmatched yet they negotiate as if they are the ones in a position of strength. One could suggest that they actually see themselves as the victors and their control over the Strait of Hormuz puts them in a strong negotiating position. Alternatively, their hearts are being hardened as was Pharaoh's.

The Iranians believe that with this geographic choke point they can hold the world hostage. Pharoah probably felt that Egypt's geographic position next to an uninhabitable desert and bordered by an impassable body of water put him in a powerful negotiating position to keep the children of Israel as slaves. Both tyrants thinking their geographic position puts them in a strong bargaining position. 

Moses and Aaron tried to negotiate with Pharaoh to allow for better conditions for their people but Pharoah just made the conditions worse. Similarly, the US has tried to negotiate with Iran at each step yet they refuse to be flexible. Perhaps, their hearts are being hardened.

Ultimately, in a miraculous fashion, the Exodus culminated with the parting of the Red Sea allowing the children of Israel to escape the Egyptians. What miraculous events are occurring as we speak? Will the hearts of the Iranians be continued to be hardened in order to demonstrate God's control over current events? Is there a culminating miracle to be performed at the Strait of Hormuz? Will there be overt miracles in our story? We are living in historic times and perhaps we have the playbook that we can refer to. The only thing we can conclude is that this ceasefire is not the end of the war by any means. Stay tuned.

Four Questions About the Iran War

Ok, so how absolutely stupid do you have to be to protest against the war in Iran? You left wing liberal morons who preach rights for every minority and cause, march to oppose the bringing down a regime that discriminates against anybody who is not Shia Muslim. Let alone, if you are female or worse if LGBT. This regime does not believe in free choice at all, yet you useful idiots with your self hatred of the West join forces with the most oppressive government that allows zero free choice.

How mentally incapacitated do you have to be with TDS that you would prefer America lose the war and prefer the survival of the apocalyptic authoritarian government in Iran just to damage Trump. Your hatred of the orange man has clouded your judgement to such a degree that you cannot clearly see a government that within the past few months has killed tens of thousands of its own citizens. And, would have no issue with murdering as many Americans as they could. By opposing 100 percent of Trump's actions you are just as dependent on him as someone who is 100% behind him. You have a mental disorder if you hope for an American loss just to be able to tarnish Trump. Get help!

How moronic and uninformed do you have to be to suggest that the threat was not imminent when they preach death to America and boast the ability to create 11 nuclear bombs?. We have been at war with Iran for the past 47 whether you like it or not and they have American blood on their hands. They have already declared war on us and are clearly attempting to obtain weapons to accomplish their goals. Believing that another round of diplomacy is the answer is suicidal either to our generation or our children's generation.

How simple minded and unsophisticated do you have to be to suggest that the war against Islamism is not America's war. You isolationist right wing simpletons want to bury your heads in the sand between two large oceans forgetting the American lives that were taken by the Iranian regime. With your vile antisemitism, you blame the Jews while Israel leads the fight in a global war that is attacking the entire West. You think you can hide 6000 miles away, but they are coming for your way of life.

Islamism is a political ideology which yearns for a global caliphate with global aspirations hiding behind the veneer of a religion. It's their way or death, period.  No different than communism or Naziism and must be dealt with similarly. The Western world is losing this war because too many are too stupid, ignorant, mentally incapacitated, oblivious, naive or self absorbed to realize they are at war for their survival and for their children's survival. Do you really want to kick the can down the road for the next generation to face a worse situation or should we do this now? Time is running out and I fear we are not up to the challenge.  WAKE UP!!!!!

Solution to the Strait of Hormuz Chokepoint

The Strait of Hormuz is a strategic choke point which Iran is manipulating in order to effect shipping and as a result increase the price of oil effecting worldwide supply and economies throughout the world. This leverage allows this apocalyptic Islamist regime to economically threaten the US and the world.  It is not a situation that can be tolerated and a definitive, lasting solution is required.

Ideally, a more favorable government will assume leadership in Iran that is non-theocratic and will cease with the anti-West ideology. Perhaps, the people will rise up and take over the government although this appears unlikely. Alternatively, a government closer to those currently in its neighboring states which has a strong leader to take control on an interim basis but with less fervent religious beliefs. 

The problem though is the degree to which the armed police state is embedded into Iranian society and whether there is the ability by either the Iranian people or the US/Israel offensive to effect their stranglehold over the country. If it does not appear that regime change is taking place and the religious police state is reversing, an alternative option is necessary.

Not necessarily a desirable outcome, but the option is to implement the Cuban model. Invasion of Iran and the take over of a portion of the country with a military base that controls the Strait of Hormuz. This will ensure the free flow of oil through the Strait to the West and to China and allow the overseeing of a gradual transition of Iran from a theocratic autocracy to a nonthreatening actor on the global stage. This facilitates the West's ability to slowly eliminate the police state in Iran, allowing for transition. Warships in the Persian gulf further protect navigational freedom.

Israel seems to be implementing this strategy by establishing a zone in Gaza that is militarily controlled and also in Lebanon by pushing the border North to the Litani River. The religious extremism has taken a long time to be established, to be indoctrinated into the populations and to be used to oppress the people. It likely wont be reversed quickly and the World does not have patience as oil prices soar and economies deteriorate. If there is no imminent regime change in Iran, its time to bite the bullet and pursue the Cuban option.

President Trump, Why Your Approval Numbers are Underwater and Getting Worse

It is difficult to deny that the first year of Trump's current administration has been extremely successful. Especially, if compared with the previous 4 years of the Biden administration. We now have a president that is trying to solve problems and to make the lives of the average American better. If that is the case, then why are Trump's approval numbers at such low levels. His disapproval is running at 55% and trending worse even as all measures seem to be improving.

Some opine that it is related to affordability, but in fact, elevated prices caused by reckless spending by the Biden administration are easing. Specifically, oil and gas prices have declined which immediately impacts the average American and then gradually lowers prices by reducing input costs in all industries that use energy. Alternatively, one could suggest expensive housing as a reason for the low numbers but many markets are seeing a decrease in housing costs due to overbuilding. Additionally, the decreasing interest rates and lower trending mortgage rates only make housing more affordable.

The singular issue that intimately affects every American that is currently off the table and not being addressed is healthcare. The system is broken and getting worse. Access to healthcare is getting more elusive and insurance costs are soaring. This creates healthcare insecurity and dissatisfaction amongst Americans who then correctly blame the administration in power and specifically the president.

The republicans have not offered a credible solution to this issue and the country is angry and disapproves. Trump proceeds to spends billions of dollars on foreign wars, whether right or wrong, and the average American cannot get basic healthcare or affordable medication. It is an argument that is difficult to refute and leads to a resentful electorate and more disapproval. 

The republicans must address this issue and not with a gimmicky solution like giving heath care dollars directly to patients. The system needs a total overhaul and it must include some elements of guaranteed heath care benefits for every citizen to relieve the insecurity. There are models that combine market solutions with government provided heath care that seem to work very well. 

Mr President, if you want your approval numbers to improve, you have to tackle the one issue that keeps getting kicked down the road. The issue that is critical to every American. The healthcare debacle is an enormous challenge and requires a major overhaul. You are up to the challenge and relish in the prospect to be known as the guy that fixed this problem when no one else could. Recreating the health care system in the United States could be your greatest accomplishment, your most impactful legacy and would certainly improve all Americans' lives and as a result your approval numbers.

Dont Miss This Next Call

Ok, so if you look at my last post, dated 2/16/26, you could have quadrupled your money had you headed my recommendation on polymarket. The United States and Israel attacked Iran on February 28 well within the deadline of March 15 for that wager. I wish I had bet more on that one as well. 

Not to gloat too much but if you look at my post from 3/13/25 titled Buy, Buy, Buy I recommended  to buy stocks. At that time the S&P was at 5520. Now, one year later the S&P sits at almost 7000, a gain of nearly 27%. Two predictions that paid off had you acted. But, don't fret I have another one.

It seems that bitcoin is putting in a strong base at around $65000. It has come down from a high of around $125000, representing an almost 50% drawdown, not atypical for bitcoin. The larger the drawdown and the longer the period of base establishment, the higher the eventual rebound in price.

This is not to say that bitcoin cannot break down and establish a lower base but I think its a good time to start establishing a position in bitcoin. If it does break down then buying more at a lower level decreases your average entry price. Buy periodically and patiently.

I am hearing people say that bitcoin is over and its going to zero. This is exactly the time to buy when everyone dismisses cryptocurrency as a hoax. This pattern has happened over and over again in cryptocurrency.  Whenever bitcoin gets ignored its the time to buy. When everyone is talking about it, it's reaching a temporary high. 

Personally, I believe in the validity and value of bitcoin and that it will likely continue to be accepted as a store of value with more use cases in the future. It is secure, scarce and easily transferrable. It has had rough year but I think this has resulted in a buying opportunity. Reaching $200000 within the next two years is certainly within reach.

Quadruple Your Money

Today, February 16, you can place a bet on polymarket whether the US will launch a strike on Iran by March 15. If correct, your winnings quadruple your initial wager, pretty good odds . This attack is inevitable for the primary reason that both sides know that any deal agreed to isn't worth the paper it is signed upon. The "negotiations" are essentially an act which Iran uses as a delay tactic and the US employs to demonstrate an attempt at diplomacy. The only question regarding the attack is the timing and whether it will be Israel alone or Israel with the US. 

It is said that Iran has never won a war but has never lost a negotiation. Google attributes this statement to Donald Trump but I suspect it was coined by someone else. Nevertheless, it is the ultimate challenge for DJT as he defines himself by his negotiating ability and nothing would sooth his ego more than to outnegotiate the best. An epic matchup of the New York Art of the Deal expert vs the negotiating expertise of the Middle Eastern shuk shopkeeper. What a battle!

But everyone knows that in any deal Iran is not an honest broker and any settlement is merely meant as a  delay to wait out Trump until he is out of office. The last thing Trump wants is to negotiate a deal that will absolutely fail and be listed as just another president on a long list who was outsmarted by the Iranians. The Trump administration doesn't want a negotiated deal because they know it will fail, ala Obama. OTOH, Trump doesn't want to be blamed for starting a middle east war, ala Bush. 

Trump basks in the self proclamation that as president he can achieve outcomes that no one else has been able to do. His ego is forever starving and always demanding to be fed. and he drools over the idea that he will be the one to fix the Iranian dilemma. Yet, he knows this cannot be done diplomatically.

The question is how Trump can achieve and be credited with regime change in Iran but not risk being labeled as the instigator of another middle east war. The option is similar to what occurred in the 12 day Iranian war. Israel will start the kinetic action under the true pretense that ballistic missiles are an existential threat. Then the US will join in, depending on how successful the Israelis are, with the plausible deniability that he didn't start the war.

So on one side you have Iran, a known liar, who does not negotiate in fairness and honesty but couches diplomatic deception as acceptable in the name of religious fanaticism.  And on the other side, DJT, who sees diplomacy as a path to failure and a negative for his legacy. To both sides, talk is meaningless.

Israel and the US see this time as ideal to achieve regime change as Iran is at a weak point economically and militarily, the Iranian people are revolting and the Netanyahu/Trump are perfect partners to act kinetically. Both leaders want this achievement on their records and neither want to be labeled as the guy that let this opportunity pass. It is going to happen and when successful will be a game changer for the world. Not terrible to quadruple your money at the same time.