Lessons from the First Israel Iran War

There are two lessons that can be learned from the ongoing Israel Iran war started on October 7, 2023, its mission, to eradicate the State of Israel and the Jews. The first is that Israel is most vulnerable when they have been lulled into a sense of security and complacency as was the case prior to October 7, 2023. The second lesson is that the enemy has only 12-24 hours to achieve enough of their goals before Israel has the time and ability to mobilize. And this is an obvious weakness of the Israeli military since it relies heavily on its reserve forces to compensate for its smaller population and hence smaller standing army. Time is required to mobilize this reserve force as most are going about their normal lives.

As in the case in the 1973 Yom Kippur war, Israeli intelligence failed to recognize the impending attack which resulted in the enemy forces making significant progress against Israel in the beginning of the war. They failed to capitalize on these gains and allowed Israel time to mobilize which eventually led to their defeat. Had the enemy been able to disrupt the mobilization of Israeli forces, the outcome may not have been favorable for the Jewish state.

If there is another existential war against Israel, the enemy will have probably learned their lesson and after a surprise initial attack would plan a secondary mission to prevent mobilization of Israeli reserve forces. This may take the form of disrupting communications via electromagnetic pulse or a biological or chemical attack.

Israel must prepare for such a scenario. Their best preparation is to capitalize on their strengths which include their intelligence and their technology advantage. In addition, it is clear that preemptive attacks by Israel results in its best outcomes and this was proven by the 67 war, the destruction of the nuclear reactors in Iraq and Syria, and the recent attack against Iran. Intelligence will lead to necessary preemptive attacks preventing full scale existential strikes against it as well as secondary strikes.

Israel's demographic disadvantage can be offset by their technological advantage. They require a force to withstand the initial attack to give it time for its reserve forces to mobilize. This may take the form of a drone/robotic force led by artificial intelligence that requires minimal front line personnel. Imagine a force of remote controlled tanks, remote controlled drones, remote controlled surface to surface missile banks along with a defensive shield. This can all be controlled by a small remotely located technology group assisted by AI, allowing time for reserve forces to mobilize.

We are living during the first Israel Iran war which started on October 7, 2023 led by the proxies of Iran. Israel is winning the war on multiple fronts but lessons are learned by both sides and both will make changes as a result. Israel has to invest in its natural advantages to overcome its demographic disadvantage. Although hopefully there wont be another, the second Israel Iran war will look very different from the current one.

Hardening of the Heart

In the story of the Exodus, it took 10 plagues for Pharaoh to allow the Jewish people to leave Egypt. And even then, he chased after them. You would think he would have seen the writing on the walls way earlier, preventing all the death and suffering experienced by the Egyptians. It is written that Pharaoh's heart was hardened and this prevented him from conceding defeat and he continued to pursue the enslavement of the Jewish people. Ultimately the Jewish people escaped and became a nation.

In the 1967 Six Day War, the king of Jordan was warned by Israel not to join with the other Arab countries to go to war against it. If they had stayed neutral, their borders would not have changed. Jordan's King Hussein decided to throw in with the Egyptians and went to war against Israel, resulting in the rapid defeat of the Jordanian army. This terrible decision by King Hussein led to Israel's capture of all of Jerusalem, including the temple mount. Was his heart hardened?

The Ayatollah in Iran is experiencing a similar scenario. Hamas and Hezbollah were defeated. Syria and the Assad regime have fallen and allow the Israelis to use their air space to attack Iran. Iran's nuclear facilities have been destroyed and the IRGC are being gradually eliminated. Israel flies freely over Iranian air space, bombing military installations, assassinating enemies at will. Yet, the Ayatollah doesn't concede defeat, obvious to anyone looking from the outside.

Why will the Ayatollah not give up? Is his heart being hardened?  Perhaps, there is a larger plan in place that is yet to be played out. In the above two examples, the hardening of the leader's hearts led to the Jewish people becoming a nation and to the reunification of Jerusalem under Israel. What will be the result of this obstinance by the Iranian leader?

We are living through historic times. These weeks that we are experiencing now will be remembered for centuries if not longer. It is clear, the orchestrator is moving pieces around and we are at an inflection point in his plan. Hardening of leader's hearts is just one tool He uses to achieve his goals.

Am Yisroel Chai!

Caitlin Clark

 Caitlin Clark's popularity and rise to fame has generated a lot of racial controversy within the WNBA in particular, but also within the sports world generally, and the country as a whole. An organization with predominantly black players, the WNBA has seen it popularity explode with the entrance of Caitlin to it's league. This has generated blatant resentment toward Caitlin by the other, mostly black players, who have subjected her to flagrant fouls and verbal attacks. To her credit, Caitlin has been the ultimate professional throughout, disregarding the attacks and never complaining about her undeserved treatment. She maintains her composure on and off the court and plays with admirable sportsmanship. 

Beginning last year with Caitlin's introduction, attendance to WNBA games has soared, salaries have improved for all players and the teams travel more comfortably. But even with that, it is understandable why the black players should feel resentment. They make up 70-80% of the players, are very talented, but who had received little to no attention prior to Caitlin. Then, here comes this white girl and the sport explodes in popularity. 

It is absolutely clear that it is the fact that she is a white girl successfully competing in a predominantly black sport that has generated this giant leap in popularity and attention to women's professional basketball. This is undeniable and rightly causes resentment amongst some black players who worked so hard for many years, devoting their lives to the sport but generating little interest.

From the viewpoint of the sports fan, seeing a white woman play at such a high level is compelling and draws viewers and attendees. Yes, this is based on her race since if Caitlin were black, she would be just another ordinary but excellent basketball player in the WNBA rolls. The white sports fan sees the anomaly of a white woman competing in a black space and feels intrigued and proud.

But is this any different than a Tiger Woods who shattered the mostly white golf world or a Serena Williams who dominated in tennis. Are Tiger Woods achievements a source of pride for black people? Do black people see Serena Williams as one of their own dominating in a mostly white sport? And for that matter, did black people feel proud when a black man was elected president, twice. I believe the answers to these questions are yeses and black people should be proud of their achievements. So then why cant white people be proud of other white people when they excel in arenas dominated by other races.

Apparently, when white people are proud its considered racist but black pride is acceptable. 

Caitlin Clark's and the WNBA's exploding popularity are being triggered by her white skin. This is difficult to say out loud in our race obsessed culture but it's the truth. 

Some People are Just Very Lucky in Life

Some people are just very lucky in life. Things have a tendency to go their way for whatever reason, regardless of their intelligence or any inherent advantage. It is as if they have an external force that works in the background making sure that they succeed in whatever endeavor they pursue. And when things tend to go awry, they suffer little setback. One such person is Donald Trump.

If you look at his history, it is amazing what he has been able to achieve even though he is not exceptional in any way. He doesn't have great intelligence, great looks, great communication ability. But, he has managed to be a successful real estate developer, successful tv personality and successful politician. Furthermore, he survived two assassination attempts, one by millimeters. Their must be a force acting on his behalf, it cant all be attributed to luck.

I believe this partly contributes to what triggers TDS (Trump Derangement Syndrome). His detractors cannot accept the enormity of success achieved by such an average man. And even more to a man they see as unintelligent, coarse and a blowhard. It drives them crazy as the more they try to bring him down, the more victories he wraps up. 

Even losing the 2020 election turned out to be a big win for him as it is allowing him to be a much more effective leader as a discontinuous president with a gap in between. And losing to Biden ,allows him to be compared to a president with dementia. Very easy comps.

Because of this unexplainable success, I think it would be a mistake to bet against Donald Trump. I think both domestically and internationally, he will continue to succeed. Yes, the administration is somewhat chaotic, in terms of the economy, tariffs, taxes, etc. but my bet is with the perpetual winner. To try and counter this trend is a foolish endeavor.

It is unexplainable why some seemingly undeserving people succeed endlessly. And why good things happen to bad people, and bad things happen to good people. Is it just luck and randomness or is there an entity moving around the chess pieces. It reminds me of the movie Amadeus, in which Salieri questions how such incredible talent could have beed endowed into such a boorish character as Mozart. In any case, it is a good lesson in life to recognize the winners in society, pay attention to them, latch onto their coattails and ride alongside them. 

Juneteenth, MLK Day, and Passover

 As a white Jewish American, I struggle to understand the need for an additional day off that has recently entered our calendar, Juneteenth. It seems that MLK day already achieves the purpose of highlighting the freedom achieved by Black Americans and the entire nation should rightly remember and celebrate this. Having two days confuses and dilutes the issue and many non-Black Americans view Juneteenth mockingly.

Alternatively, one can suggest that there is a difference between MLK day and Juneteenth. The message of MLK day is a universal truth that one should be judged not by the color of his skin (or sex, religion, race, etc) but by the content of their character. A lesson all Americans need to hear regularly and reminded of frequently, especially in such a diverse society as ours. 

In contrast, Juneteenth recognizes specifically, the freedom from slavery achieved by Black Americans, a uniquely Black American experience and rightly celebrated by Black Americans. But I question whether the entire nation should celebrate Juneteenth and further, whether making Juneteenth a national holiday actually dilutes its meaningfulness to Black Americans and the nation as a whole. 

Passover, similar to Juneteenth, celebrates the transition of a people, the Nation of Israel from slavery to freedom. We remember, retell, and actually relive our historical path some 3500 years ago on Seder night. This highly choreographed service achieves several important cultural goals, one of the primary being for the children to be active participants by asking questions. We perform strange rituals on that night specifically to prompt the children to be intrigued and inquire. This accomplishes the goal of teaching the children who they are and where they came from and perpetuates the tradition through the generations. We acknowledge the slavery and suffering at the beginning but end with and stress the celebration of freedom. 

Passover is celebrated by the Jewish people as it is our unique historical experience. It is a celebration of our freedom, not a condemnation of past grievances. It allows us to continue to pass our tradition through the generations and to warn of future threats (uniquely needed by the Jewish people). It is meant to be a fun, instructive, positive, encouraging experience. To remember and be forewarned but not to dwell. To ultimately provide pride and hope.

We wouldn't expect the current day Egyptians to mark this achievement and certainly not any other non-Jewish nations. It is our journey and only we own it. It is not intended to provide universal national or international lessons. It shapes our culture. 

Juneteenth can be a similar experience and can be choreographed to be an important tool to instruct Black American children and shape their culture. Of course, they will start by learning that their ancestors suffered as slaves but will then transition to attaining freedom and conclude with the remarkable achievements by Black Americans, overcoming immense challenges. This will have the consequence of the children learning where they came from and more importantly, instill pride in their historical path and provide hope for their futures. It should minimize the grievances but concentrate on the achievements and the future. 

Juneteenth should be a holiday celebrated by Black Americans commemorating their unique journey. It is their history, their suffering and their achievements and they should own it exclusively. Not to be diluted and mocked by others, but to be admired and to be used as a tool to advance their own culture and provide pride and hope to their children.  How much more powerful would it be for the entire nation to observe Black Americans take the day off in commemoration of their journey while the rest of us work. 

Juneteenth should be a holiday for Black Americans exclusively similar to Passover for the Jews.  If planned properly, it would be more meaningful to both Black Americans and for the nation as a whole. Yet most importantly, provide the pride and the hope Black American children truly deserve and need.

Global Chess

What does Iran have up their sleeve? They are not acting as one would expect based on media reports of their diminished military capabilities, their population's hatred towards the government and their economy being in the toilet. One would expect them to be more receptive towards the West and less instigative as they seem more isolated but act emboldened. 

It is possible that this attitude represents religious fanaticism which in their minds ensures their ultimate victory over the West despite prevailing conditions. But perhaps they have a well thought out plan as they are very smart and experienced strategists. Perhaps their plan is currently underway and began on October 7 with the Israeli and US response fully anticipated and going according to their plan that they keep under wraps. Maybe it started with the invasion of Ukraine.

Perhaps they have a secret plan known to China and Russia to thwart the US and its allies. It seems that Iran is intentionally provoking the West into military action in order to justify a retaliation which is their ultimate plan. That retaliatory strike would likely target the United States directly as the US with its open borders in the last 4 years could easily have admitted a sleeper cell planning a major terror incident. The US has many soft targets and this can easily be exploited. It may make 9/11 seem small in comparison. 

Iran would put all the blame on Israel and the US' support of Israel for the attack in order to sway US public opinion against Israel, attempting to drive a wedge between the US and Israel. The ultimate goal being to cut off Israel's main benefactor and then try to eliminate Israel.

The West has to be smart with its aggression towards Iran and should use the Iranian population's hatred towards their government to their advantage. The US should not attack Iran directly as this may turn the Iranian public opinion against the West, and should be left to the IDF which has justification. The west should instead help the Iranian people overcome their government themselves. Hopefully, there exists connections within Iran to instigate a revolution against their tyrannical leaders enjoining the military to turn against the current government with the support of the masses.

Lets hope and pray we are one step ahead of Iran and not the other way around.

A Big Deal

 The Democratic party approval ratings are in the toilet and rightly so. They have shown themselves to be liars and as I have written previously, demonstrate a lack of concern for the needs and desires of the American people. They care only of their own power regardless of whats good for the country and its citizens. They desperately need a fresh approach and need to realize that being an obstructionist party is a losing strategy that will only entrench the GOP's control. 

With all due respect to Chuck Schumer, he is a horrible leader for the democratic party and will only lead to more democratic losses. He is a reminder of the horrible Biden years. He perpetuated lies from the Senate floor. He is too old looking with the reading glasses on the tip of his nose. He is seen as an obstructionist and not as a constructive leader with a forward vision for America. A new face is needed to lead the party. 

The Democratic party has to start making deals with the right, advancing some of their policies in exchange for allowing some right leaning policies. They need some wins, even if it entails some right wing victories. The Dems need to demonstrate their value to their base and to try and recover a portion of the working class. They only need seven senate votes to overcome the filibuster and enact legislation. A coalition of seven moderate, young, fresh democratic senators should lead the party in this endeavor and into the future. 

A bold deal can be made between the dems and the GOP. Here's what it may look like. The GOP would get a halting of birthright citizenship and a change to the asylum laws which have been greatly abused and gamed. In addition. immigration will be revised and enforced, and illegal immigrants will be deported. Revocable residency visas will be granted but will not lead to citizenship or come with benefits.

To the dems in exchange, the broken health care system of the US will be dramatically changed. Healthcare will be guaranteed to all citizens and every citizen will be insured. There will be a public healthcare system that would NOT be managed by government but by private companies such as United Healthcare, etc. Medicare and medicaid would be abolished as everyone would be included in the public system.

A payroll tax will be instituted and paid by employers, but the employers would save the premiums they are currently paying to insure their employees. A work requirement is implemented for all citizens.

In addition, there would be a private system where people can upgrade their insurance or buy a supplemental policy which covers providers in a private arrangement. Providers can work both in the public system and in the private system depending on their desires and schedules. 

Plus, as long as the main health related mandatory spending burdens on the budget are controlled, the sole remaining factor, social security will finally be reformed. Now is the time to strengthen this system to ensure its longevity and doing it concurrently while both parties are compromising makes a lot of sense. This is the easiest piece and many solutions abound, but requires bipartisan unanimity because it is deemed to be a political loser. It doesn't have to be, since everybody ?50+ would be grandfathered to the current system.

Of course, this deal as described is a concise outline and there are many details to work out. But it would show that government CAN work. This bold deal would be good for a new face of democrats looking to advance their agenda and demonstrate a constructive vision of America. It would be good for the GOP, finally achieving a long desired outcome. And most importantly, it will be good for the citizens of the USA.