Lessons from the First Israel Iran War

There are two lessons that can be learned from the ongoing Israel Iran war started on October 7, 2023, its mission, to eradicate the State of Israel and the Jews. The first is that Israel is most vulnerable when they have been lulled into a sense of security and complacency as was the case prior to October 7, 2023. The second lesson is that the enemy has only 12-24 hours to achieve enough of their goals before Israel has the time and ability to mobilize. And this is an obvious weakness of the Israeli military since it relies heavily on its reserve forces to compensate for its smaller population and hence smaller standing army. Time is required to mobilize this reserve force as most are going about their normal lives.

As in the case in the 1973 Yom Kippur war, Israeli intelligence failed to recognize the impending attack which resulted in the enemy forces making significant progress against Israel in the beginning of the war. They failed to capitalize on these gains and allowed Israel time to mobilize which eventually led to their defeat. Had the enemy been able to disrupt the mobilization of Israeli forces, the outcome may not have been favorable for the Jewish state.

If there is another existential war against Israel, the enemy will have probably learned their lesson and after a surprise initial attack would plan a secondary mission to prevent mobilization of Israeli reserve forces. This may take the form of disrupting communications via electromagnetic pulse or a biological or chemical attack.

Israel must prepare for such a scenario. Their best preparation is to capitalize on their strengths which include their intelligence and their technology advantage. In addition, it is clear that preemptive attacks by Israel results in its best outcomes and this was proven by the 67 war, the destruction of the nuclear reactors in Iraq and Syria, and the recent attack against Iran. Intelligence will lead to necessary preemptive attacks preventing full scale existential strikes against it as well as secondary strikes.

Israel's demographic disadvantage can be offset by their technological advantage. They require a force to withstand the initial attack to give it time for its reserve forces to mobilize. This may take the form of a drone/robotic force led by artificial intelligence that requires minimal front line personnel. Imagine a force of remote controlled tanks, remote controlled drones, remote controlled surface to surface missile banks along with a defensive shield. This can all be controlled by a small remotely located technology group assisted by AI, allowing time for reserve forces to mobilize.

We are living during the first Israel Iran war which started on October 7, 2023 led by the proxies of Iran. Israel is winning the war on multiple fronts but lessons are learned by both sides and both will make changes as a result. Israel has to invest in its natural advantages to overcome its demographic disadvantage. Although hopefully there wont be another, the second Israel Iran war will look very different from the current one.