Monday, December 21, 2009

Market Psychology Under BO

One of the benefits of working as a doctor is coming across a wide selection of the workforce. This allows me to me to get a decent read of the economic activity of the local and national economy. I see realtors, factory workers, small business owners, Wall Street bankers, UPS workers, local bankers, day workers etc. I often ask them how business is going to get a feel of the general business climate.

This past week I saw a man who works for a fund that invests in real estate. He told me that they are not buying anything now and not expecting to in the foreseeable future. When I asked him why, he explained to me that his investors have been turned off by the current administration’s attitude towards the financial industry. I am sure if there was money to be made these people would find a way to invest but it is interesting how these psychological factors have affected their investment decisions and thus the economy.

The most critical group of people responsible for economic expansion are the entrepreneurs, the risk takers. They are the ones who establish new businesses and create jobs. For multiple reasons they are inactive including fear of federal regulations and taxes, fear of continued economic malaise, and fear of inflation due to overprinting of money by the fed. But most importantly they feel vilified by the current administration. They have been portrayed by the left as the source of all that is wrong and this had led them to respond by inactivity. This is their weapon by which they can respond to such attacks. The irony is that the administration needs these entrepreneurs to become active, to grow the economy, to produce jobs and generate tax revenues to support government expansion.

Market psychology is perhaps the most important factor when it comes to economic trends. As long as the sentiment remains that government is anti-business, the economy will continue to stagnate. The entrepreneurs must feel that the potential reward gained is worth the risk taken. BO thinks the government can replace the private market in expanding the economy. He also believes he can continue to drain private business to support his government expansion while vilifying the golden goose at the same time. Sadly this is only a recipe for further deterioration of the economy which then leads to more safety net expansion of the government. And the cycle continues downward.

Monday, December 14, 2009

BO Surfing TV

I was wondering when BO was at the end of his day, sitting on the couch in some room of the white house with a remote control flipping through the channels what he watches. I have a strange suspicion he lands on Fox news and watches Beck, O’Reilly and Hannity. One might think he would select NBC, CBS or MSNBC, which are outright supporters of his, but I do not think he goes there and I will explain why.

BO is a narcissist. He truly believes he has the answer to all of our problems and given time he can solve them all. This is why government will expand dramatically under his watch as he views it as the solution to our woes not the problem itself. He also believes he is smarter than all the presidents before him which is why he travels around the world apologizing for previous administration’s actions and decisions. Of course, he has the benefit of hindsight. By apologizing for previous policies he elevates himself personally at the expense of the previous decision makers and the historical record of the country. The apology confers the idea that if only he had been the president at that time, a better decision would have been made. It’s all about him.

As a narcissist BO cannot understand how people exist that do not agree with his policies. This probably eats him up inside and is eager to understand why there are dissenting opinions if he already has all the answers. This is why I think he is obsessed with Fox news, the main TV outlet for opposing opinions. He doesn’t care about MSNBC where they are all Kool Aid drinkers and cheerlead for him regardless. He dwells on those “crazies” who can actually disagree with him and he tries to comprehend why.

Fox news can thank BO for his loyal viewership. But he should not feel alone because as the ratings would indicate millions are tuning in to Fox over NBC, CBS, and MSNBC. He wishes it were for the same reasons.

Monday, December 7, 2009

Timing is Everything

It is now clear why it took so long for BO to come forward with his Afghan plan. Call me conspiratorial but I think he was waiting to use the issue as a way to deflect attention away from the health care argument. This administration is extremely calculating and as Rahm says never let a major issue go to waste, but use it to advance your agenda even if it involves a failing economy or sending kids to war.

The popularity of the health care plan was dropping on a weekly basis. The more people knew about it, the more they disliked it. They had to get this issue off the front pages and talk shows. They successfully deflected the attention of the media and the American public away from health care and onto the Afghan war.

The GOP has to be just as calculating and prepare for the Dems maneuvering. For example, the Dems are waiting to bring up the immigration issue to coincide with the next election cycle. They are well aware of the polarizing nature of this matter and the power of this issue to bring out the all important Hispanic vote. They are using immigration reform as a tool to manipulate the electorate and extend their power. The GOP must prepare the counter argument that will not alienate the Hispanic vote but attract the vote to the Republican side. They have plenty of time to come up with a platform that would appeal to the Hispanic voter.

They have to send a positive message to the Hispanics that they add a great deal to our nation and are critical to our future. Stay away from the often negative statements of illegality, deportations, and draining society’s resources. The vast majority of the Hispanics want their chance at the American dream not a replay of the socialist state that they escaped from and which the Dems are creating. This along with their high percentage of religious devotion should make them natural allies of the GOP.

The Republicans need to be just as cunning and manipulative as the Dems. They have to predict the timing of issues and plan their counterarguments. Most importantly they need to keep their messages positive. Negativity is not a recipe for success.

Monday, November 30, 2009

BO's Afghanistan Poilcy

BO is stuck in a corner regarding Afghanistan and this is why it has taken him so long to arrive at a decision. He campaigned on the idea that Iraq was the bad war whereas Afghanistan was the right war, the war of necessity. I don’t think he actually believed that but took that position to be the non-Bush. Instead of campaigning on his true beliefs he said whatever it took to be elected even in the case of war.

Now he actually has to be the commander in chief of a war that he likely does not believe in but is forced to fight. Everything points to the fact that he is a pacifist and likely believes there is never a case for war. He believes in talking as the sole instrument in resolving issues as we can see in his comments and actions in regards to other conflicts.He also has to please the far left, to which he is indebted, who is anti-war.

Afghanistan is very different than Iraq and what worked in Iraq will likely not work in Afghanistan. Perhaps a more limited force would be better with greater emphasis on intelligence and surgical strikes. The idea of adding additional troops there as sitting ducks waiting for the Afghan army and government to evolve is a mistake. I fear major troop losses. We need leaders who can think outside the box. A surge won’t work everyplace just because it worked in one place.

BO is incapable of fighting this war that he is not dedicated to and this will be detrimental to the troops in the field. For this reason he should not approve any more troops to be sent over and should plan for withdrawal. This is most likely what he would like to do but he would need to backtrack on his previous words. This would be difficult for him but isn’t that admission better than sending our boys and girls into a war that he does not back 100%. If he feels cornered into making the choice between two bad decisions I hope he selects the side that preserves the troops versus what is politically convenient.

Monday, November 23, 2009

Government vs. Health Insurance Company

Although the majority of the implementation of the health care proposal will go into effect in 2013, two changes are planned to start immediately. Those are the prevention of insurance company’s denial based on pre-existing conditions and the elimination of lifetime caps on benefits. It is obvious that if insurance companies are forced to comply with these regulations then the cost of insurance will need to go up and perhaps significantly. This will result in a decrease in employers offering insurance, more out of pocket expenses, more people uninsured, and ultimately greater unemployment. Exactly the opposite of what the goals of the government should be.

What needs to be understood is that the insurance company is just a middle man that takes in premiums and then doles out payments and takes a cut as their profit. They create insurance products with pre-existing clauses and lifetime caps to keep the premiums down for the purchaser. Then when an individual’s care is rejected due to the details of the health plan they selected, the insurance company is viewed as evil. The insurance company becomes an easy target for policy makers but in truth is implementing the plan that was paid for.

The insurance company keeps premiums down by rationing care. They attempt to screen out costs that are deemed to be unnecessary and are vigilant against fraud and abuse. This may seem cruel at times, especially when dealing with the sick but it is necessary to maximize the value of the premium dollar. Critics will say the insurance company denies care to improve their profits not to keep premiums low and there is likely some truth to that. But that is where competition and the free market step in. The company must keep their insured satisfied and their premiums competitive. This is why maximizing competition is critical. The more competition that exists, the better the product at the lowest cost. This is why purchasing plans over state lines which would enhance competition is such an important change.

The government has demonstrated its inability to limit costs and instead ends up overpaying for unnecessary and fraudulent claims. They are able to do this because they are not limited by the premiums they collect and by shareholders seeking earnings. They are funded by the taxpayer, the printing press, and by borrowing from China.

As the government puts more restrictions on insurance companies they are essentially limiting the options for us to choose from. This will result in more expensive policies and fewer people insured. More people will then rely on government for health care which is their underlying goal. Vilifying the insurance companies by the government is a populist scheme to garner more federal control and less individual liberty.

Saturday, November 14, 2009

Israel vs. Iran Coming to a Head

Last week in Iran there was a state sanctioned rally to mark the 30th anniversary of the US embassy takeover. Instead of the expected anti-Americanism, the Anti-government reformist took over demonstrating once again against the current regime. Another indication that the Iranian public is not supportive of the current leaders but has little opportunity to achieve change. The government is trying its utmost to suppress this opposition and will do anything to maintain their control. As an American this may seem to be a favorable trend but I think it actually creates a very unstable and dangerous situation.

As per the usual middle Eastern playbook, the regimes attempt to divert the attention of their populous by diverting their attention away from their corrupt despotic government. What this usually means is to instigate a confrontation with Israel. When Israel responds the blame for the incident is placed on Israel and the Arab/Persian media gang up on Israel hoping to divert the attention of their street. Unfortunately, the European and American media are right behind lining up to blame Israel first. If the Israelis only treated the Palestinians better this would never have happened. What B.S. We have seen this play out in Gaza and Lebanon.

I have great concern that Iran is going to draw Israel into a confrontation either in Gaza or Lebanon. The Iranian regime is feeling much pressure from their citizens and they will take desperate measures to remain in power. It will not take much to instigate Israel as we saw a few years ago it only took the kidnapping of two soldiers. The Iranians use Gaza and Lebanon as pawns to achieve their own goals at the expense of Arabs whom they view as expendable. The Persians are building up the weapons in Gaza and Southern Lebanon as demonstrated by the vessel the Israelis intercepted recently with massive weaponry destined for these areas.

I fear the next 6-18 months as Iran sees that Obama is a weak leader and is distancing the US from Israel. Iran is banking that US support for Israel is waning and sees this as an opportunity to achieve its goals of distracting the street and eliminating Israel. I suspect Israel is well aware of the scenario, is taking the appropriate steps and sees this as its own opportunity to remove Iran as its main threat. Israel needs to strike at the heart of the beast and it needs to act before Iran obtains nukes.

Monday, November 9, 2009

Fort Hood, Who's to Blame

What bothers me most about the massacre at Ft.Hood is the revelation that there were several indications that the shooter, Nidal Malik Hasan, was a problem waiting to happen. Apparently, he made numerous comments regarding his opposition to the war which alone isn’t a problem as I suspect many in the armed forces feel similarly. He also made comments to the effect that he felt suicide bombers were justifiable in their actions. He had colleagues that were aware of his radical views that were never acted upon by authorities. It is now coming out that he attended the same mosque as two of the 9/11 hijackers. Lastly, I just heard the government was aware for months that Hasan was trying to contact Al Qaeda.

There is plenty of blame to go around but I put the majority of the blame upon those that have crippled us with political correctness. The lawyers such as those on the ACLU have caused everybody to walk on egg shells when it comes to treatment of certain protected groups. We are all so scared of getting sued that we are unable to protect ourselves when a true threat arises. I am sure that nothing was done to Hasan because of his religion as the authorities were concerned about being called racists and possibly indicted for discrimination,

These lawyers have the blood of the thirteen murdered victims on their hands. We as a nation have allowed the lawyers to bring us to a point that we can no longer protect ourselves. I do not know how, but this must change for the nation to survive.. The notion that by just giving everybody a chance, treating them as equals, and availing all people of opportunities that they will reciprocate with gratitude is false. There is a segment of the population that is overtly anti- American and this group must be identified and dealt with regardless of their color, race, sex or religion.

I hope this tragic episode causes a redirection of our legal system, our mainstream media and our liberal politicians. But I am sure that instead of blaming radical Islam, somehow Hasan will be viewed as a victim. This country is in truly bad shape and there doesn't appear to be anything to be hopeful for in the near future.