There is no doubt in my mind that the biggest loser of 2009 is the senior senator from Pennsylvania, Arlen Specter. This knucklehead, if you do not remember, switched from the GOP to the Democratic Party soon after the election of BO and the overwhelming victory of the dems against the GOP in the 2008 elections. His conversion gave the dems a filibuster proof majority in the senate. I am sure he thought he was switching to the party that would be in the majority for a long time. But no matter how you look at it and from any perspective the results of this decision have had exactly the opposite effects that were intended.
From a personal point of view, Specter’s switch to the dems will certainly cause the end of his senatorial career. The dems have quickly fallen out of favor as they pursue the Pelosi/Reid far left agenda. The approval rating of the congress is very low and in many congressional races entrenched democrats look to be facing fierce competition from the GOP. Specter thought he would more likely get another senatorial term as a democrat. Although Specter would have had a hard time getting re-elected as republican, his chances of re-election as a democrat in the current political environment is almost zero.
From the point of view of the democratic party, Specter’s handing them a filibuster proof 60th vote was certainly viewed as a victory and a ticket to pursue their agenda without opposition. In actuality, all it gave the dems was the chance to show how incompetent and out of touch they are with the folks. They completely overplayed their hand and ultimately were not able to pass any significant legislation even with this supermajority (except very unpopular, pork laden, deficit exploding and ineffective spending). Without having the GOP as a foil, they exposed their true agenda and demonstrated their true intentions (big nanny government and redistribution of wealth). What was thought to be a conquest (60 votes) for the dems is turning out to be a disaster.
From the GOP point of view, Specter’s defection, completely took them away from the negotiating table. By losing the ability to filibuster they were deemed irrelevant in forming policy and this was seen as a severe blow to the party. What turned out though is that by not having any role in policy formation in actuality worked in their favor. Yes, it allowed the dems to expose themselves as described above. But more so, I think if Specter stayed a republican and they had 41 votes the dems would have had an easier time getting through their agenda. They would have Specter the republican going along with their agenda giving them cover. Additionally, if they were blocked by a filibuster they could blame the GOP for any failure keeping public opinion in their favor. Ultimately, they could not blame the GOP for their failures with a resulting loss of public opinion for the dems and gains for the GOP.
Specter violated the age old doctrine of buy low and sell high. He bought stock in the Democratic Party at its high and has seen his investment plummet. He must be regretting that decision, terribly. What he thought would be beneficial to him and the dems effectively became a detriment and a boon to the GOP. I wonder whether he is pondering if it is too late for him to switch back. I don’t suppose the GOP will welcome him with open arms.
Monday, February 15, 2010
Monday, February 8, 2010
Back to Reality, Part II
Last week I wrote about some fairly scary scenarios. I thought this week I would write about some possible steps that could be taken to enhance security. The steps are geared towards a Jewish audience as I feel that they are likely to be targeted and are probably already the targets of sleeper cells that exist in this country. Last week at a congressional testimony the heads of the FBI, CIA, and homeland security testified that an attack on this country in the next 3- 6 months is CERTAIN. They mentioned that there already exist operatives in this country ready to act.
I am surprised the terrorists have not figured out the following strategy. They blow up a mall in the U.S., blame it on Israel’s oppression of the Pals which will turn American public opinion against Israel. Guaranteed, the American public will throw Israel under the bus if this scenario repeats itself several times. Without American support, Israel will be significantly weakened. Already, BO has distanced the US from Israel and I think he would have no problem further severing the relationship.
We Jews more than any other group should be very concerned and take steps to protect ourselves. With our recent history in the early 20th century we should know that no one will protect us when the time comes. The government, especially this administration, will likely not be there for us and will probably be too busy reading Miranda rights to the terrorist. They will blame Israel for the terrorist’s rage, that his actions are understandable based on how the Palestinians are treated. We have been complacent for far too long and now must take the situation into our hands and prepare ourselves.
Our brothers and sisters in Israel have shown us we can be comfortable defending ourselves. We should learn to be comfortable with guns and teach ourselves and our children the safe use and handling of a firearm. Our Jewish schools should have after school mandatory activities to teach children on self defense, security methods and the use of firearms. Our synagogues should have self protection groups that are in charge of maintaining security. This would include armed guards (trained synagogue members), provisional plans in the event of an attack, and members trained in having concealed weapons and their use. Our summer camps are a perfect place to train children in self defense and the use of weapons. There are already Israelis coming to these camps as counselors. Why not bring a few Israelis to teach our kids how to protect themselves.
I know some will read this and think I am going overboard and maybe I am. But I think the burden is upon us to ensure our own safety. Our history dictates that we are always targeted and blamed. If we think that somehow this time is different, that we live in a country where we are protected, then ultimately we have only ourselves to blame for our complacency. More than any other group, we should know that history keeps repeating itself and we should act accordingly.
I am surprised the terrorists have not figured out the following strategy. They blow up a mall in the U.S., blame it on Israel’s oppression of the Pals which will turn American public opinion against Israel. Guaranteed, the American public will throw Israel under the bus if this scenario repeats itself several times. Without American support, Israel will be significantly weakened. Already, BO has distanced the US from Israel and I think he would have no problem further severing the relationship.
We Jews more than any other group should be very concerned and take steps to protect ourselves. With our recent history in the early 20th century we should know that no one will protect us when the time comes. The government, especially this administration, will likely not be there for us and will probably be too busy reading Miranda rights to the terrorist. They will blame Israel for the terrorist’s rage, that his actions are understandable based on how the Palestinians are treated. We have been complacent for far too long and now must take the situation into our hands and prepare ourselves.
Our brothers and sisters in Israel have shown us we can be comfortable defending ourselves. We should learn to be comfortable with guns and teach ourselves and our children the safe use and handling of a firearm. Our Jewish schools should have after school mandatory activities to teach children on self defense, security methods and the use of firearms. Our synagogues should have self protection groups that are in charge of maintaining security. This would include armed guards (trained synagogue members), provisional plans in the event of an attack, and members trained in having concealed weapons and their use. Our summer camps are a perfect place to train children in self defense and the use of weapons. There are already Israelis coming to these camps as counselors. Why not bring a few Israelis to teach our kids how to protect themselves.
I know some will read this and think I am going overboard and maybe I am. But I think the burden is upon us to ensure our own safety. Our history dictates that we are always targeted and blamed. If we think that somehow this time is different, that we live in a country where we are protected, then ultimately we have only ourselves to blame for our complacency. More than any other group, we should know that history keeps repeating itself and we should act accordingly.
Monday, February 1, 2010
Back to Reality
It was nice to be away for a week or so and not hear much in the way of current events. The cruise had no newspaper but you could watch Fox news or CNN. I didn't have much time to watch which was fine. Going through all the security on the plane and ship I started thinking where a terrorist would strike to inflict significant damage. Although I think the plane's and ships's security are penetrable, it is now somewhat more difficult. There are much easier targets to pursue.
If they wanted to target Jews, which seem to be a constant, I think they could easily inflict significant casualties. My synagogue has no security and in this regard we are way behind other countries. When travelling to Vienna a couple of years ago, it was very difficult to enter the synagogue. The street was blocked off and guarded by armed soldiers. Entry was granted only after a brief interview. There is no deterrent from a terrorist entering my synagogue on any Saturday with a bomb or machine gun causing a massacre.
My children's Jewish school is "protected" by a person sitting at a desk asking people to sign in when they arrive. I do not believe they are armed but even if they were they are a minimal deterrent to a determined armed terrorist. Scary thought what could occur.
The scariest scenario, however, would be at a sleep away summer camp. It is very easy to google Jewish camp and determine their locations. They are filled with many children and few adults. They are located in isolated, remote areas. They are in rural towns which are very spread out and with minimal police forces. As far as I know there is no security in these camps and they would be easy targets. It is too painful to imagine what could happen with one crazy terrorist carrying a weapon and lots of ammo.
In typical American/non-Israeli style, security will only be implemented after the first attack. Unfortunately, the best protection I have is that statistically it would be a long shot that my synagogue, school or camp will be the first one hit. Once there is a hit, which is only a matter of time, no cost will be spared to ensure security. It's too bad we can't be proactive, predict their moves and act pre-emptively. Instead we act reponsively, after it is too late. Pretty depressing thoughts.
If they wanted to target Jews, which seem to be a constant, I think they could easily inflict significant casualties. My synagogue has no security and in this regard we are way behind other countries. When travelling to Vienna a couple of years ago, it was very difficult to enter the synagogue. The street was blocked off and guarded by armed soldiers. Entry was granted only after a brief interview. There is no deterrent from a terrorist entering my synagogue on any Saturday with a bomb or machine gun causing a massacre.
My children's Jewish school is "protected" by a person sitting at a desk asking people to sign in when they arrive. I do not believe they are armed but even if they were they are a minimal deterrent to a determined armed terrorist. Scary thought what could occur.
The scariest scenario, however, would be at a sleep away summer camp. It is very easy to google Jewish camp and determine their locations. They are filled with many children and few adults. They are located in isolated, remote areas. They are in rural towns which are very spread out and with minimal police forces. As far as I know there is no security in these camps and they would be easy targets. It is too painful to imagine what could happen with one crazy terrorist carrying a weapon and lots of ammo.
In typical American/non-Israeli style, security will only be implemented after the first attack. Unfortunately, the best protection I have is that statistically it would be a long shot that my synagogue, school or camp will be the first one hit. Once there is a hit, which is only a matter of time, no cost will be spared to ensure security. It's too bad we can't be proactive, predict their moves and act pre-emptively. Instead we act reponsively, after it is too late. Pretty depressing thoughts.
Saturday, January 23, 2010
Work Hard Play Hard
Well, thanks to the TSA I made it safely to Miami and I have come to a critical realization. My epiphany is that vacation is so much better than working. I don't mean a little bit, but immeasurably so. As the years have transpired my need and desire for more vacation time has increased. At first I took a couple of vacations a year for several days each. Now I need to have a vacation planned every 3 months and not just for a few days but it seems to have stretched into 7-10 days per vacation. I used to feel guilty when I took time off but now I have the need to have planned or to be planning at least two vacations into the future.
The paradox is that I suspect I enjoy vacation so much only because of how difficult and stressful work is. I think one's enjoyment of vacation is directly proportionate to the difficulty, the work hours and the stress of one's occupation. It seems that I cannot tire of vacation time but I suspect if I take too much vacation at some point I will not enjoy it as much as it will become routine. I am still trying to find the right balance but for sure I am still vacation deficient and overworked.
At one extreme all work and no vacation leads to burn out on the job and ultimately poor job performance. The opposite case of all vacation and no work is termed retirement. I see many retired people in the office and I really don't think they can appreciate retirement. The reason is that they lack a balance between work time and leisure time. I do not have scientific data to support this observation but my anecdotal opinion is that older people that continue to work are healthier overall than their nonworking counterparts. So not only does work enable one to appreciate leisure time but it also leads to a healthier longer life (my opinion).
One of the best pieces of advise I have received and I try to pass along to my children is to work hard and play hard. It is about striking the right balance between work and play but additionally to put maximal effort into both. Leisure time is not just the absence of work but requires effort to achieve its potential. Playing hard enables one to be more refreshed and productive at work while working hard enables one to afford and appreciate his/her leisure time. This week I will try to play hard as I board a cruise later on today. As soon as I return though, I will be on my computer planning my spring and summer vacations.
The paradox is that I suspect I enjoy vacation so much only because of how difficult and stressful work is. I think one's enjoyment of vacation is directly proportionate to the difficulty, the work hours and the stress of one's occupation. It seems that I cannot tire of vacation time but I suspect if I take too much vacation at some point I will not enjoy it as much as it will become routine. I am still trying to find the right balance but for sure I am still vacation deficient and overworked.
At one extreme all work and no vacation leads to burn out on the job and ultimately poor job performance. The opposite case of all vacation and no work is termed retirement. I see many retired people in the office and I really don't think they can appreciate retirement. The reason is that they lack a balance between work time and leisure time. I do not have scientific data to support this observation but my anecdotal opinion is that older people that continue to work are healthier overall than their nonworking counterparts. So not only does work enable one to appreciate leisure time but it also leads to a healthier longer life (my opinion).
One of the best pieces of advise I have received and I try to pass along to my children is to work hard and play hard. It is about striking the right balance between work and play but additionally to put maximal effort into both. Leisure time is not just the absence of work but requires effort to achieve its potential. Playing hard enables one to be more refreshed and productive at work while working hard enables one to afford and appreciate his/her leisure time. This week I will try to play hard as I board a cruise later on today. As soon as I return though, I will be on my computer planning my spring and summer vacations.
Monday, January 18, 2010
New Jersey to Miami via Ben Gurion
At the end of this week I am heading to Miami with my family and I was thinking about the safety issues regarding the flight. It is clear that the security that is in place to give us the impression that we are safe is completely ineffective and purely theatrical. The TSA officers are busy worrying about a little old lady with an oversized tube of toothpaste rather than a single guy named Ahmed traveling alone with his prayer rug. The only effective security deserving of the word is El Al’s.
At first I thought the only secure way to get to Miami from New Jersey by air is to fly from New York to Miami with a stopover in Tel Aviv. This way I could get El Al security for my trip to Miami. El Al does fly roundtrip from Miami to Israel and although this is the safest itinerary I would spend my entire vacation in the air. Obviously, I would also have to fly back from Miami to Israel then to New Jersey. It would also be a rather expensive nonvacation for me and my family. I figure at least 20k just for the flights as opposed to about 2k if I fly directly. There must be a better way.
On a more serious note, I started asking some people if they would pay an extra fee if everyone on their flight was subjected to real El Al security. Everyone I spoke to was willing to pay some sum of money from 20 to 100 dollars for the added benefit. Perhaps there should be certain flights which include this heightened level of security for all the passengers. It would clearly cost more per ticket but I think there is a market for such a designated flight. A person can choose to pay extra or he could choose to go on a flight with standard TSA security. It would be interesting to see whether there is a market for such a product.
So at the end of this week I am placing my security in the hands of the TSA as I travel direct from New Jersey to Miami. I figure the odds are pretty good that nobody will opt to blow themselves up and I don’t want to spend the extra time and money stopping over in Ben Gurion (although I could go for decent shwarma). But given the option of added El Al security on my direct flight, I would certainly pay an additional fee for the piece of mind, knowing I am flying under the protection of Israeli security.
At first I thought the only secure way to get to Miami from New Jersey by air is to fly from New York to Miami with a stopover in Tel Aviv. This way I could get El Al security for my trip to Miami. El Al does fly roundtrip from Miami to Israel and although this is the safest itinerary I would spend my entire vacation in the air. Obviously, I would also have to fly back from Miami to Israel then to New Jersey. It would also be a rather expensive nonvacation for me and my family. I figure at least 20k just for the flights as opposed to about 2k if I fly directly. There must be a better way.
On a more serious note, I started asking some people if they would pay an extra fee if everyone on their flight was subjected to real El Al security. Everyone I spoke to was willing to pay some sum of money from 20 to 100 dollars for the added benefit. Perhaps there should be certain flights which include this heightened level of security for all the passengers. It would clearly cost more per ticket but I think there is a market for such a designated flight. A person can choose to pay extra or he could choose to go on a flight with standard TSA security. It would be interesting to see whether there is a market for such a product.
So at the end of this week I am placing my security in the hands of the TSA as I travel direct from New Jersey to Miami. I figure the odds are pretty good that nobody will opt to blow themselves up and I don’t want to spend the extra time and money stopping over in Ben Gurion (although I could go for decent shwarma). But given the option of added El Al security on my direct flight, I would certainly pay an additional fee for the piece of mind, knowing I am flying under the protection of Israeli security.
Monday, January 11, 2010
Terrorism Risk Assessment Profile (TRAP)
A suggestion to identify who is likely to be a terrorists and more importantly who is unlikely. Terrorism Risk Assessment Profile (TRAP). Similar to a credit score a person would have a TRAP score based on multiple criteria.
Country of Origin/ Home address
Middle East Country +20, Europe +10, USA +0
Religion
Christian/Jewish +0, Other +40
Name
Middle Eastern +25, non-Middle Eastern +0
Age
Less than 13 -20, 14-35 +30, greater than 36 +0
Travel Companions
For each child travelling with you -10, travelling alone +25
Method of Payment for Flight
Cash +40, Credit Card -10
Type of Ticket
One way +40, Roundtrip +0
Luggage
None +20
Marrital Status
Single +20, Married (Crapshoot. May make one more or less apt to blow up oneself)
Education Level
High school or less +20, College or greater -20
Criminal History
Yes +30, No +0
Travel History
Previous travel to Middle East +50, No travel to Middle East +0
Credit Score
Greater than 600 -20, Less than 600 +10
Net Worth
Less than 50K +10, Greater than 250K -30
Occupation/employment
Unemployed +20, Employed (depends on occupation ?postal worker)
House of Worship
Synagogue, Church, etc.
Psychiatric history/meds
Yes +40, No -10
Other/tips
Father calls CIA that you are radicalized- Don't bother
The best thing about this system is that it is completely voluntary. If you voluntarily participate and your TRAP score is less than 100 you can show up at the airport two hours in advance and go through routine identification and screening.If your TRAP score is greater than 100, or you do not volunteer to participate you must show up at the airport 6 hours early and be subjected to an interview, and a full body search at your expense. Lets inconvenience the potential terrorist NOT the general public. Seems harsh? Too bad.
Lets face it. There is no way we can have an Israeli type security system. We are not good at identifying a terrorist amongst thousands of travellers by interviewing them and noticing nuances in their behavior. However, we are good at collecting data on people and we should use this to PROFILE. We can use this objective data to determine a TRAP score and then finding a terrorist amongst a smaller number becomes a lot more realistic.
The travelling public should demand that profiling should start immediately as we know this is our only chance at identifying a potential terrorist. Until this is implemented we should boycott any nonessential air travel. Our most powerful weapon is the use of our dollars.
Country of Origin/ Home address
Middle East Country +20, Europe +10, USA +0
Religion
Christian/Jewish +0, Other +40
Name
Middle Eastern +25, non-Middle Eastern +0
Age
Less than 13 -20, 14-35 +30, greater than 36 +0
Travel Companions
For each child travelling with you -10, travelling alone +25
Method of Payment for Flight
Cash +40, Credit Card -10
Type of Ticket
One way +40, Roundtrip +0
Luggage
None +20
Marrital Status
Single +20, Married (Crapshoot. May make one more or less apt to blow up oneself)
Education Level
High school or less +20, College or greater -20
Criminal History
Yes +30, No +0
Travel History
Previous travel to Middle East +50, No travel to Middle East +0
Credit Score
Greater than 600 -20, Less than 600 +10
Net Worth
Less than 50K +10, Greater than 250K -30
Occupation/employment
Unemployed +20, Employed (depends on occupation ?postal worker)
House of Worship
Synagogue, Church, etc.
Psychiatric history/meds
Yes +40, No -10
Other/tips
Father calls CIA that you are radicalized- Don't bother
The best thing about this system is that it is completely voluntary. If you voluntarily participate and your TRAP score is less than 100 you can show up at the airport two hours in advance and go through routine identification and screening.If your TRAP score is greater than 100, or you do not volunteer to participate you must show up at the airport 6 hours early and be subjected to an interview, and a full body search at your expense. Lets inconvenience the potential terrorist NOT the general public. Seems harsh? Too bad.
Lets face it. There is no way we can have an Israeli type security system. We are not good at identifying a terrorist amongst thousands of travellers by interviewing them and noticing nuances in their behavior. However, we are good at collecting data on people and we should use this to PROFILE. We can use this objective data to determine a TRAP score and then finding a terrorist amongst a smaller number becomes a lot more realistic.
The travelling public should demand that profiling should start immediately as we know this is our only chance at identifying a potential terrorist. Until this is implemented we should boycott any nonessential air travel. Our most powerful weapon is the use of our dollars.
Monday, January 4, 2010
Enough With the Twinkies
This past week I saw a patient weighing 700 pounds who needed his tracheostomy tube changed. It got me thinking about how much is being spent on this person’s care who has a chronic disease that is mostly or predominantly self-inflicted. The real change that is required in today’s health system is to affect people’s health and lifestyle choices and incentivize people to live a healthy existence. A significant portion of health care dollars are spent on people with largely preventable chronic disease. By changing people’s behavior to live a healthier lifestyle we will be a more productive society, spend much less on health care, and empower the individual to control his own health status.
Where in this bill is the incentive to get people to get off their couches and go for a walk? Where is the incentive to stop eating twinkies and devil dogs and instead get a fruit or some nuts? Where is it in this bill that encourages people to stop lighting up those tobacco cancer sticks? Where is the incentive to empower the individual to take control of his/her decisions to pursue a healthy lifestyle? The answer is it is not there because the designers of the bill do not want to put any responsibility on the individual. They do not care to empower the individual, only to create more reliance on government.
The true method to control run-away health care costs is to create a system where good health is paramount and incentivized. This will lead to a dramatic decrease in the use of services. Continuous cutting of payments to providers is not productive. It leads to rationing, poor quality health care, and eventually a lower quality of providers. Remember, you get what you pay for. If you pay providers less you will get less, guaranteed.
The question remains how one creates incentives that will coerce the individual to put down the twinkie or get off the couch and go for a walk. One would think that just the fact that a healthier life leads to a longer and more enjoyable life would be incentive enough. For some this is the case but obviously not for many. Financial incentives would probably be an incentive for some and should be used. Encouragement by a role model such as a parent or doctor or athletic star may work. This is where I think BO could have a dramatic and long lasting impact.
BO should explain to his constituents that they should not rely on government but they need to assume personal responsibility to make the right health choices. He should actively encourage all people to throw down the yodels, turn off the TV and go for a walk with their child, spouse or parent. He has a powerful ability to influence the lifestyle of many people, especially young people, and should focus on empowering people to live healthier lifestyles. This is the most important step he can take as president to improve the lives of people and will also lead to a dramatic decrease in health care spending.
Where in this bill is the incentive to get people to get off their couches and go for a walk? Where is the incentive to stop eating twinkies and devil dogs and instead get a fruit or some nuts? Where is it in this bill that encourages people to stop lighting up those tobacco cancer sticks? Where is the incentive to empower the individual to take control of his/her decisions to pursue a healthy lifestyle? The answer is it is not there because the designers of the bill do not want to put any responsibility on the individual. They do not care to empower the individual, only to create more reliance on government.
The true method to control run-away health care costs is to create a system where good health is paramount and incentivized. This will lead to a dramatic decrease in the use of services. Continuous cutting of payments to providers is not productive. It leads to rationing, poor quality health care, and eventually a lower quality of providers. Remember, you get what you pay for. If you pay providers less you will get less, guaranteed.
The question remains how one creates incentives that will coerce the individual to put down the twinkie or get off the couch and go for a walk. One would think that just the fact that a healthier life leads to a longer and more enjoyable life would be incentive enough. For some this is the case but obviously not for many. Financial incentives would probably be an incentive for some and should be used. Encouragement by a role model such as a parent or doctor or athletic star may work. This is where I think BO could have a dramatic and long lasting impact.
BO should explain to his constituents that they should not rely on government but they need to assume personal responsibility to make the right health choices. He should actively encourage all people to throw down the yodels, turn off the TV and go for a walk with their child, spouse or parent. He has a powerful ability to influence the lifestyle of many people, especially young people, and should focus on empowering people to live healthier lifestyles. This is the most important step he can take as president to improve the lives of people and will also lead to a dramatic decrease in health care spending.
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