Quadruple Your Money

Today, February 16, you can place a bet on polymarket whether the US will launch a strike on Iran by March 15. If correct, your winnings quadruple your initial wager, pretty good odds . This attack is inevitable for the primary reason that both sides know that any deal agreed to isn't worth the paper it is signed upon. The "negotiations" are essentially an act which Iran uses as a delay tactic and the US employs to demonstrate an attempt at diplomacy. The only question regarding the attack is the timing and whether it will be Israel alone or Israel with the US. 

It is said that Iran has never won a war but has never lost a negotiation. Google attributes this statement to Donald Trump but I suspect it was coined by someone else. Nevertheless, it is the ultimate challenge for DJT as he defines himself by his negotiating ability and nothing would sooth his ego more than to outnegotiate the best. An epic matchup of the New York Art of the Deal expert vs the negotiating expertise of the Middle Eastern shuk shopkeeper. What a battle!

But everyone knows that in any deal Iran is not an honest broker and any settlement is merely meant as a  delay to wait out Trump until he is out of office. The last thing Trump wants is to negotiate a deal that will absolutely fail and be listed as just another president on a long list who was outsmarted by the Iranians. The Trump administration doesn't want a negotiated deal because they know it will fail, ala Obama. OTOH, Trump doesn't want to be blamed for starting a middle east war, ala Bush. 

Trump basks in the self proclamation that as president he can achieve outcomes that no one else has been able to do. His ego is forever starving and always demanding to be fed. and he drools over the idea that he will be the one to fix the Iranian dilemma. Yet, he knows this cannot be done diplomatically.

The question is how Trump can achieve and be credited with regime change in Iran but not risk being labeled as the instigator of another middle east war. The option is similar to what occurred in the 12 day Iranian war. Israel will start the kinetic action under the true pretense that ballistic missiles are an existential threat. Then the US will join in, depending on how successful the Israelis are, with the plausible deniability that he didn't start the war.

So on one side you have Iran, a known liar, who does not negotiate in fairness and honesty but couches diplomatic deception as acceptable in the name of religious fanaticism.  And on the other side, DJT, who sees diplomacy as a path to failure and a negative for his legacy. To both sides, talk is meaningless.

Israel and the US see this time as ideal to achieve regime change as Iran is at a weak point economically and militarily, the Iranian people are revolting and the Netanyahu/Trump are perfect partners to act kinetically. Both leaders want this achievement on their records and neither want to be labeled as the guy that let this opportunity pass. It is going to happen and when successful will be a game changer for the world. Not terrible to quadruple your money at the same time. 

Microplastics and Blood Letting

Once in a while I am going to throw in a post on a medical topic that seems to come from left field. I am a retired medical doctor but in no way are these tested or proven hypotheses.  They are merely observational and speculative without any proof to back them up. Whatever.

The Human body has an enormous ability to eliminate natural waste and potentially harmful chemicals. Whether produced naturally by the body or absorbed from the environment we have evolved complex systems to deal with these toxins. However, with the rapid introduction of a multitude of chemicals into our environment by industry, the body has been overwhelmed and cannot quickly adapt to eliminate all these toxins.  

There is a redundancy of methods the body employs to excrete toxins. Elimination is performed by filtration in the kidneys, detoxification in the liver,  exhalation in the lungs, as well as sweat and bile production by the skin and GI system. 

One of the primary tools the body uses is kidney function, essentially biologically filtering the blood to eliminate impurities. But as with any filtration system there are imperfections causing certain chemicals to escape the filter and build up in the body. The recent discovery of microplastics accumulating in the body and specifically the brain is demonstrative of this phenomenon. More than likely there are other chemicals, yet to be identified, which are accumulating and causing disease.

Perhaps, since the body cannot eliminate all toxins, the only way to remove certain buildups is by periodic removal of blood. Blood letting was popular for many centuries until it fell out of favor in the 19th century. But as with everything else, what is old is new again. Periodic blood withdrawal is a currently approved treatment for certain diseases such as polycythemia vera, but perhaps wider use is to be considered. But in the meantime, blood donation accomplishes the same result.

A typical blood donation removes about 10% of your blood volume and by donating every 3 months a person can refresh their blood and eliminate 10% of potential toxins that are lurking in their blood at each donation. There is likely a balanced concentration of toxins that occur between the intravascular space and extravascular space. By lowering the concentration in the intravascular space with blood donations, built up toxins in our cells and tissues will migrate into the intravascular space over time and be available for removal at the next donation. Gradually ridding the body of its toxic buildup.

It is well known that menstruating women are afforded heath benefits over their male counterparts that seem to dissipate at menopause. Their monthly period accomplishes the same result as periodic donations, gradually eliminating circulating toxins. Perhaps the monthly bleeding contributes to this advantage. Additionally, women statistically outlive men and perhaps this is due to the decades of menstruation resulting in reduced total body toxin levels. 

Donating blood is easy and free with limited downside. It provides life saving treatment for others who are in desperate need or undergoing certain surgical procedures. But, it may also provide the donor with significant health benefits. As with microplastic buildups in the body, more chemicals will be discovered to be evading our excretory systems, building up in our bodies and brains, causing disease. Until an extracorporeal method is available that supercedes the bodies ability to excrete toxins, periodic blood withdrawal/donation is the way to go. Worst case, it doesn't help the donor but you will have helped others.