Israel vs. Iran Coming to a Head

Last week in Iran there was a state sanctioned rally to mark the 30th anniversary of the US embassy takeover. Instead of the expected anti-Americanism, the Anti-government reformist took over demonstrating once again against the current regime. Another indication that the Iranian public is not supportive of the current leaders but has little opportunity to achieve change. The government is trying its utmost to suppress this opposition and will do anything to maintain their control. As an American this may seem to be a favorable trend but I think it actually creates a very unstable and dangerous situation.

As per the usual middle Eastern playbook, the regimes attempt to divert the attention of their populous by diverting their attention away from their corrupt despotic government. What this usually means is to instigate a confrontation with Israel. When Israel responds the blame for the incident is placed on Israel and the Arab/Persian media gang up on Israel hoping to divert the attention of their street. Unfortunately, the European and American media are right behind lining up to blame Israel first. If the Israelis only treated the Palestinians better this would never have happened. What B.S. We have seen this play out in Gaza and Lebanon.

I have great concern that Iran is going to draw Israel into a confrontation either in Gaza or Lebanon. The Iranian regime is feeling much pressure from their citizens and they will take desperate measures to remain in power. It will not take much to instigate Israel as we saw a few years ago it only took the kidnapping of two soldiers. The Iranians use Gaza and Lebanon as pawns to achieve their own goals at the expense of Arabs whom they view as expendable. The Persians are building up the weapons in Gaza and Southern Lebanon as demonstrated by the vessel the Israelis intercepted recently with massive weaponry destined for these areas.

I fear the next 6-18 months as Iran sees that Obama is a weak leader and is distancing the US from Israel. Iran is banking that US support for Israel is waning and sees this as an opportunity to achieve its goals of distracting the street and eliminating Israel. I suspect Israel is well aware of the scenario, is taking the appropriate steps and sees this as its own opportunity to remove Iran as its main threat. Israel needs to strike at the heart of the beast and it needs to act before Iran obtains nukes.