Global Chess

What does Iran have up their sleeve? They are not acting as one would expect based on media reports of their diminished military capabilities, their population's hatred towards the government and their economy being in the toilet. One would expect them to be more receptive towards the West and less instigative as they seem more isolated but act emboldened. 

It is possible that this attitude represents religious fanaticism which in their minds ensures their ultimate victory over the West despite prevailing conditions. But perhaps they have a well thought out plan as they are very smart and experienced strategists. Perhaps their plan is currently underway and began on October 7 with the Israeli and US response fully anticipated and going according to their plan that they keep under wraps. Maybe it started with the invasion of Ukraine.

Perhaps they have a secret plan known to China and Russia to thwart the US and its allies. It seems that Iran is intentionally provoking the West into military action in order to justify a retaliation which is their ultimate plan. That retaliatory strike would likely target the United States directly as the US with its open borders in the last 4 years could easily have admitted a sleeper cell planning a major terror incident. The US has many soft targets and this can easily be exploited. It may make 9/11 seem small in comparison. 

Iran would put all the blame on Israel and the US' support of Israel for the attack in order to sway US public opinion against Israel, attempting to drive a wedge between the US and Israel. The ultimate goal being to cut off Israel's main benefactor and then try to eliminate Israel.

The West has to be smart with its aggression towards Iran and should use the Iranian population's hatred towards their government to their advantage. The US should not attack Iran directly as this may turn the Iranian public opinion against the West, and should be left to the IDF which has justification. The west should instead help the Iranian people overcome their government themselves. Hopefully, there exists connections within Iran to instigate a revolution against their tyrannical leaders enjoining the military to turn against the current government with the support of the masses.

Lets hope and pray we are one step ahead of Iran and not the other way around.

A Big Deal

 The Democratic party approval ratings are in the toilet and rightly so. They have shown themselves to be liars and as I have written previously, demonstrate a lack of concern for the needs and desires of the American people. They care only of their own power regardless of whats good for the country and its citizens. They desperately need a fresh approach and need to realize that being an obstructionist party is a losing strategy that will only entrench the GOP's control. 

With all due respect to Chuck Schumer, he is a horrible leader for the democratic party and will only lead to more democratic losses. He is a reminder of the horrible Biden years. He perpetuated lies from the Senate floor. He is too old looking with the reading glasses on the tip of his nose. He is seen as an obstructionist and not as a constructive leader with a forward vision for America. A new face is needed to lead the party. 

The Democratic party has to start making deals with the right, advancing some of their policies in exchange for allowing some right leaning policies. They need some wins, even if it entails some right wing victories. The Dems need to demonstrate their value to their base and to try and recover a portion of the working class. They only need seven senate votes to overcome the filibuster and enact legislation. A coalition of seven moderate, young, fresh democratic senators should lead the party in this endeavor and into the future. 

A bold deal can be made between the dems and the GOP. Here's what it may look like. The GOP would get a halting of birthright citizenship and a change to the asylum laws which have been greatly abused and gamed. In addition. immigration will be revised and enforced, and illegal immigrants will be deported. Revocable residency visas will be granted but will not lead to citizenship or come with benefits.

To the dems in exchange, the broken health care system of the US will be dramatically changed. Healthcare will be guaranteed to all citizens and every citizen will be insured. There will be a public healthcare system that would NOT be managed by government but by private companies such as United Healthcare, etc. Medicare and medicaid would be abolished as everyone would be included in the public system.

A payroll tax will be instituted and paid by employers, but the employers would save the premiums they are currently paying to insure their employees. A work requirement is implemented for all citizens.

In addition, there would be a private system where people can upgrade their insurance or buy a supplemental policy which covers providers in a private arrangement. Providers can work both in the public system and in the private system depending on their desires and schedules. 

Plus, as long as the main health related mandatory spending burdens on the budget are controlled, the sole remaining factor, social security will finally be reformed. Now is the time to strengthen this system to ensure its longevity and doing it concurrently while both parties are compromising makes a lot of sense. This is the easiest piece and many solutions abound, but requires bipartisan unanimity because it is deemed to be a political loser. It doesn't have to be, since everybody ?50+ would be grandfathered to the current system.

Of course, this deal as described is a concise outline and there are many details to work out. But it would show that government CAN work. This bold deal would be good for a new face of democrats looking to advance their agenda and demonstrate a constructive vision of America. It would be good for the GOP, finally achieving a long desired outcome. And most importantly, it will be good for the citizens of the USA.

Buy, Buy, Buy

 Capital markets are declining big time after an initial uptick following Trump's election. Market indices are in or heading to correction territories. The cause is based on the narrative that we are heading towards recession due to tariffs leading to higher prices and reduced consumption. A loss of mostly government related jobs due to overhiring in the Biden administration, raising unemployment. Less government spending, due to DOGE, which was pumping up the economy up by recklessly spending and borrowing. 

These Trump initiatives are necessary steps to put the economy on a better footing and create long term stability and healthy growth. They are short term hits to the economy in the anticipation of long term benefits. A responsible government is finally in place to reverse the irresponsible actions of previous administrations (including Trump 1.0) and sometimes it comes with some bitter medicine. But, there are other factors which can mitigate the negatives which are being overlooked.

If it appears that the economy is slowing, interest rates will fall and this will be very bullish for America and what Trump is attempting to engineer. As a real estate guy, he knows the power of lower interest rates. Lower interest rates will allow homeowners, businesses, and government to initiate and refinance their debt allowing for spending, expansion and reducing debt payments. All boosting economic activity.

Lowering of oil prices and gasoline reverberates throughout the economy and improves balance sheets of families and businesses. Manufacturers benefit from a reduction in their input prices. Oil has fallen from over $80 per barrel to under $70 per barrel under Trump and is expected to go under $60 per barrel as supply increases. 

The reduction of regulations is likely proceeding under the radar screen as government cuts by Elon Musk and DOGE are taking up most of the oxygen in the room. The regulatory bureaucracy puts a major weight on the shoulders of businesses and by reducing and eliminating them, businesses are empowered, boosting the overall economy.

Yes, there will be some negative policies intentionally placed on the economy but these are much needed corrections of previous irresponsibility. They will be sufficiently offset by other actions and trends. This market downturn is a great buying opportunity and I hope it goes down further to enable the purchase of additional assets on sale.

Plan B

Now that Trump is back in the white house, there is a 4 year window for people to make contingency plans in case the US spirals towards a more extremist government after Trump. The dems want to label the current government as extreme which is their usual claim towards any republican administration (see Mccain, Romney). But their claims now fall on deaf ears as they have cried wolf once too often. 

As the pendulum of party control goes back and forth, the arc becomes more extreme in either direction. It is only a matter of time until a real extremist is elected. One can argue if this will be from the left or right but the democratic party has a much larger progressive wing than its republican extreme counterpart. The left has certainly shown its fascist tendencies with limitation of freedom of speech and freedom of the press, limiting citizen's gun possession and manipulation of elections through cheating.

We all need a plan B, so now is the time to make plans for an escape to another country just in case things really go sour. A lot of paperwork is required which takes time, plus imagine if everybody looks to leave at the same time, overwhelming government agencies. A second passport is a critical safety valve that can save your life and now is the time to pursue one. If you wait until things turn bad, it will be too late. 

The first path to consider is citizenship by descent. Where were your parents and grandparents from? Where were your spouses parents and grandparents from? It is possible to obtain citizenship if they immigrated from another country, particularly if they were forced out. It takes quite a bit of time to obtain but it can be the cheapest option.

Another option is to purchase citizenship. Some Caribbean countries will sell you citizenship and this can be done rather quickly but at a cost minimally in the low six figures. 

Some countries will issue you a residence permit and passport which allows you to live in their country as long as you can prove that you can support yourself. But a residence permit is not as binding as citizenship. 

Lastly, consider the option of citizenship by investment. In this case, one makes an investment in a country in exchange for residency or citizenship. For example, the purchase of real estate in a country above a certain value, comes with citizenship or residency. The value of this method is it allows you to obtain a second passport, have a piece of real estate to escape to, and most importantly, moves part of your assets outside the US.

These options are especially timely for my fellow Jewish Americans who often have their heads in the sand but who should be the most aware due to their historical expulsions and persecutions. Plus, most have historical roots in other countries which can be exploited. If you're depending on Israel to be your escape valve, well that may be an option but squeezing hundreds of thousands of people into tiny Israel in a short time would be overwhelming for years until the country could catch up. Make Israel your plan C.

This post may be considered radical by some but things always appear calm before the storm. Things can change and change fast. It's always good to have options, even if they are never needed. Everyone should seek a plan B for themselves and their family, what's the harm? Get a second passport

Impressions of Dubai

 I am sitting by a pool in Dubai and I am fascinated by the success of the UAE. A moderate Muslim country that is growing its population and skyline and is tolerant of all religions and nationalities. It welcomes migrants to work legally and earn more than they would in their home country. It attracts foreigners with their tax free policy allowing migrants to escape high taxed as well as war torned countries. It is an oasis from governments that tax away your money in the belief that they can spend and redistribute it better than you can. Seems ideal.

What's the catch? You have to obey the law or you will be deported. There is no option for citizenship, only a residence permit which can be withdrawn. There are no government service, specifically, no government supplied health care or retirement benefit. Of course, you can purchase insurance or pay for health care as needed. There is no safety net, so you either have to work or be able to pay your own way. Essentially, you are there voluntarily at the benevolence of the crown prince. Both the migrant and the UAE benefit.

It is a very international crowd with a heavy proportion of Indians and Pakistanis who make up a large proportion of the work force. You hear a lot of Russian being spoken which is no surprise as wealthy Russians escape the current war and also escape taxation. Many Brits as well have immigrated to the UAE to escape their declining standard of living in the UK. 

It is ironic that Muslim immigrants to European nations have influenced their new countries toward a downward trajectory and a decreasing standard of life. Yet, the native populations in Europe escape to a Muslim country for a better life. 

The UAE demonstrates what a moderate Muslim country can accomplish and contrasts with other Muslim countries that focus on hating non-Muslims. The quality of life rises dramatically once hatred of others abates. This must be so obvious to those visiting the UAE, yet the hatred is so deep that it trumps a better life for themselves and their children. I'm not sure if it is a different interpretation of the religion or repressive tactics by the rulers to focus on hate. Hard to figure but the UAE does so many things right.

The UAE is going to continue to attract worldwide wealth and to grow its population. As the West declines, the UAE will benefit by attracting the upper tiers from around the world. This includes successful businesses, innovators, scientists etc. Is the UAE the new land of opportunity?

 Investing in the UAE seems to be good bet.